936 FXUS64 KMAF 150743 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 VFR conditions with light and occasionally gusty southeast winds will continue the next 24 hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Yesterday was once again well below normal for temperatures in most locations, but that may come to an end the next couple of days. Models are showing warmer temps advecting into the area with 850mb temps increasing about 2.5C today over yesterday. This would translate into about a 4F rise in highs which is right in line with NBM guidance, though still a couple of degrees cooler than MET/MAV. This is unsurprising given the MET/MAV have been consistently too warm since the heavy rains we had recently. Apparently guidance is still struggling with the high soil and vegetation moisture content. These warmer temperatures should also help cause a few more showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains today and tomorrow where 20-30 PoPs are in the forecast. Slow storm movement and very modest instability greatly reduces the chances that any showers will remain long enough to make it east of the Pecos River. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The weekend is still looking prime for convection out west as our western ridge continues to develop over the central Rockies, placing our forecast area on the SE edge of the ridge. With the thermal trough well west of TX, temps will remain below normal for much of the region with mainly 90s encompassing all of West TX and Southeast NM, outside the high terrain. The pattern shifts to an active state by early next week as another cold front makes an appearance from the north. It's a complex pattern for July, but certainly one that can favor increasing shower and storm chances, as well as locally heavy rainfall as easterly winds lead some much higher than normal precipitable water values (PWATs) into the entire forecast area. In fact, as much as 2 standard deviations above normal for PWATs are being depicted by long range deterministic guidance over 3/4's of West TX. Basically, this is saying any rainfall could be heavy at times, and flooding will be the main concern locally, pending radar trends. Temperatures of course will be even lower thanks to lower height pattern and increased cloudiness regionwide. Highs in the 80s will be the most common, which is a good 10-15 degrees below normal for late-July. This bizarre stretch of wet, and seasonally cool weather will not be ceasing until MAYBE next weekend at this rate. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 72 93 72 / 0 10 10 10 Carlsbad 97 72 97 72 / 20 20 20 20 Dryden 95 73 96 73 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Stockton 97 71 98 71 / 10 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 90 70 90 70 / 20 20 30 20 Hobbs 94 70 94 70 / 20 20 10 20 Marfa 89 62 90 64 / 10 10 20 20 Midland Intl Airport 94 71 94 71 / 0 10 10 10 Odessa 95 71 95 71 / 10 10 10 10 Wink 99 73 99 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...10