308 
FXUS64 KLUB 132328
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
628 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.AVIATION...
Gusty southerly winds will continue through this evening at all
terminals, relaxing slightly overnight. VFR conditions will also
prevail at all terminals this evening and during the overnight
hours. However, there are a few solutions which suggest that a
deck of low stratus will move into the area from the south near
daybreak. As a result, a period of MVFR ceilings will be possible
at KLBB Wednesday morning. Confidence in this occurring is low
overall, but enough to include a FEW mention at KLBB. These
ceilings are not expected to reach KPVW and KCDS. Gusty southerly 
winds will pick up again late Wednesday morning with generally 
clear skies. /DWK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...
Not much change to the short term forecast. High pressure centered 
to the west will gradually expand eastward. Temperatures will be at 
or slightly below what we'd expect this time of year (upper 80s to 
low 90s) with light southerly surface winds. Elevated dewpoints 
(upper 50s to low 60s) will make it feel a little humid, but 
fortunately temperatures are more reasonable than what is possible 
this time of year. It will all add up to a really pleasant evening 
and overnight into Wednesday.

LONG TERM...
No major changes in the long-range forecast particulars or 
reasoning this afternoon.

After a couple of drier and warmer days through Wednesday, the 
pattern should revert to the slightly cooler and wetter one that 
has persisted throughout much of July. 

Wednesday into Thursday, the SW US upper-ridge will be shunted all 
the way west into srn CA as a shortwave moves through the inter-
mountain west, emerging into the high plains on Thursday. This 
trough will be able to tap into deep sub-tropical moisture and 
widespread tstm activity is expected to develop across srn CO and
nrn NM by Wednesday afternoon. This activity should then progress
into the western Panhandles Wednesday night, and perhaps into the
northwest or western South Plains, before losing momentum by 
early Thursday morning. With the upper trough in the area 
Thursday, and the deep-layer moisture plume shifting over the 
area, we may see some local t-storm development Thu. afternoon, 
mainly across the nrn half of the forecast area. This development 
is a little uncertain, with the potential and coverage likely 
dependent on any remnant outflow(s), MCVs, and cloud cover from 
the overnight activity. What is more certain is that we should see
another round of t-storm activity roll southeast out of NM 
Thursday evening, which appears likely to sustain itself farther 
to the southeast Thursday night, so mentionable PoPs extend 
everywhere except the far srn Rolling Plains. Above average PWATs 
and slow storm motions should again bring the potential for some 
locally heavy rainfall. The severe potential should be low 
overall, although there could be some wet microburst potential 
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Medium range guidance begins to diverge with the 500mb height
pattern on Friday. The mid-level moisture plume is likely to 
remain over the region, but we could see increasing heights as 
the ridge begins to reamplify over the 4-corners, or we could see 
a lingering weakness in the height field. At this time, 20-30% 
PoPs will suffice across the area Friday through Sunday for mainly
late afternoon through late night rain chances until confidence 
improves either way.

This weekend, the upper ridge will continue to expand from the 
4-corners northward up the spine of the Rockies. As it does, a 
shortwave will dive south out of the western Canada prairies and 
into the central Plains by early next week. The GFS and ECMWF do 
disagree with some of the particulars of this wave, but both send
a cold front south into our area by Monday. With an ample supply 
of deep-layer moisture expected to continue, this should set up 
another period with very solid potential for shower and 
thunderstorm activity. Right now the highest PoPs look to be 
focused on Monday afternoon and Monday night, with the focus for 
precip starting to shift south of the forecast area by next 
Tuesday. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/55/33