308 FXUS64 KLUB 132328 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 628 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021 .AVIATION... Gusty southerly winds will continue through this evening at all terminals, relaxing slightly overnight. VFR conditions will also prevail at all terminals this evening and during the overnight hours. However, there are a few solutions which suggest that a deck of low stratus will move into the area from the south near daybreak. As a result, a period of MVFR ceilings will be possible at KLBB Wednesday morning. Confidence in this occurring is low overall, but enough to include a FEW mention at KLBB. These ceilings are not expected to reach KPVW and KCDS. Gusty southerly winds will pick up again late Wednesday morning with generally clear skies. /DWK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021/ SHORT TERM... Not much change to the short term forecast. High pressure centered to the west will gradually expand eastward. Temperatures will be at or slightly below what we'd expect this time of year (upper 80s to low 90s) with light southerly surface winds. Elevated dewpoints (upper 50s to low 60s) will make it feel a little humid, but fortunately temperatures are more reasonable than what is possible this time of year. It will all add up to a really pleasant evening and overnight into Wednesday. LONG TERM... No major changes in the long-range forecast particulars or reasoning this afternoon. After a couple of drier and warmer days through Wednesday, the pattern should revert to the slightly cooler and wetter one that has persisted throughout much of July. Wednesday into Thursday, the SW US upper-ridge will be shunted all the way west into srn CA as a shortwave moves through the inter- mountain west, emerging into the high plains on Thursday. This trough will be able to tap into deep sub-tropical moisture and widespread tstm activity is expected to develop across srn CO and nrn NM by Wednesday afternoon. This activity should then progress into the western Panhandles Wednesday night, and perhaps into the northwest or western South Plains, before losing momentum by early Thursday morning. With the upper trough in the area Thursday, and the deep-layer moisture plume shifting over the area, we may see some local t-storm development Thu. afternoon, mainly across the nrn half of the forecast area. This development is a little uncertain, with the potential and coverage likely dependent on any remnant outflow(s), MCVs, and cloud cover from the overnight activity. What is more certain is that we should see another round of t-storm activity roll southeast out of NM Thursday evening, which appears likely to sustain itself farther to the southeast Thursday night, so mentionable PoPs extend everywhere except the far srn Rolling Plains. Above average PWATs and slow storm motions should again bring the potential for some locally heavy rainfall. The severe potential should be low overall, although there could be some wet microburst potential Thursday afternoon and evening. Medium range guidance begins to diverge with the 500mb height pattern on Friday. The mid-level moisture plume is likely to remain over the region, but we could see increasing heights as the ridge begins to reamplify over the 4-corners, or we could see a lingering weakness in the height field. At this time, 20-30% PoPs will suffice across the area Friday through Sunday for mainly late afternoon through late night rain chances until confidence improves either way. This weekend, the upper ridge will continue to expand from the 4-corners northward up the spine of the Rockies. As it does, a shortwave will dive south out of the western Canada prairies and into the central Plains by early next week. The GFS and ECMWF do disagree with some of the particulars of this wave, but both send a cold front south into our area by Monday. With an ample supply of deep-layer moisture expected to continue, this should set up another period with very solid potential for shower and thunderstorm activity. Right now the highest PoPs look to be focused on Monday afternoon and Monday night, with the focus for precip starting to shift south of the forecast area by next Tuesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 30/55/33