800 
FXUS63 KOAX 021740
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

Forecast Summary:

Rather typical early-July weather is in the forecast for the holiday 
weekend with temperatures warming from the 80s today to the 90s by 
Sunday. And while there is a small chance for thunderstorms on the 
4th, more unsettled weather is scheduled for the first half of next 
week when better chances for thunderstorms return to the forecast.

Today through Sunday night:

Mid level ridge over the central CONUS will control our weather for 
the next couple of days, providing warm temperatures and minimal 
rain chances. Ridge is forecast to break down by Sunday as mid level 
shortwave trough drops southeast through the Northern Rockies into 
the Plains. 

Surface high pressure over eastern Nebraska today is forecast to 
retreat east tonight, allowing southeast then south flow to return 
by Saturday. Slowly increasing dew points from near 60 this 
afternoon into the mid and upper 60s by Sunday afternoon will 
provide fuel for potential convection under approaching shortwave.

A weak surface front is scheduled into northeast Nebraska early 
Sunday afternoon as shortwave slides overhead. SBCAPE should top 
1500 J/kg where lapse rates are highest over surface convergence. 
Inhibition is expected to be overcome for a few thunderstorms to 
fire during the afternoon and evening while front slowly drifts 
toward Interstate 80. Certainly not looking like a washout for 
outdoor activities, but may have to dodge a few storms.

Monday through Thursday:

A second shortwave is forecast to drop into the region on Tuesday, 
bringing our best chance of the 7-day period for more widespread 
precipitation. Accompanying surface front should be stronger than 
Sunday's, and moisture pooling along boundary will offer plenty of 
fuel under cooler temps aloft. Still, total instability and shear 
will be modest at best, near 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and near 25kt of 0-
6km bulk shear. So chance for severe seems low, but much-needed rain 
is a good bet for parts of our area. 

Otherwise very warm temperatures in the mid 90s will start the week 
Monday before settling back toward Tuesday under more clouds and 
precip potential. A bit cooler Wednesday behind shortwave and 
surface front, but only back into the mid and upper 80s. Thursday 
looks dry and a little warmer again as mid level heights begin to 
build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021

Another quiet TAF period is set for the 18z issuance, with the
only change groups being a result of changing wind directions.
Winds today are expect to be light and out of the southeast,
becoming variable overnight. Tomorrow wind speeds pick up and are
back over 10 kts out of the south/southwest. Some models are
indicating that winds gust of around 20 kts could crop up at the
KOFK TAF but better chances lie to the west of there. Overall VFR
conditions are expected to carry us through the period with only
patchy cumulus to spoil blue skies.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dergan
AVIATION...Petersen