800 FXUS63 KOAX 021740 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Forecast Summary: Rather typical early-July weather is in the forecast for the holiday weekend with temperatures warming from the 80s today to the 90s by Sunday. And while there is a small chance for thunderstorms on the 4th, more unsettled weather is scheduled for the first half of next week when better chances for thunderstorms return to the forecast. Today through Sunday night: Mid level ridge over the central CONUS will control our weather for the next couple of days, providing warm temperatures and minimal rain chances. Ridge is forecast to break down by Sunday as mid level shortwave trough drops southeast through the Northern Rockies into the Plains. Surface high pressure over eastern Nebraska today is forecast to retreat east tonight, allowing southeast then south flow to return by Saturday. Slowly increasing dew points from near 60 this afternoon into the mid and upper 60s by Sunday afternoon will provide fuel for potential convection under approaching shortwave. A weak surface front is scheduled into northeast Nebraska early Sunday afternoon as shortwave slides overhead. SBCAPE should top 1500 J/kg where lapse rates are highest over surface convergence. Inhibition is expected to be overcome for a few thunderstorms to fire during the afternoon and evening while front slowly drifts toward Interstate 80. Certainly not looking like a washout for outdoor activities, but may have to dodge a few storms. Monday through Thursday: A second shortwave is forecast to drop into the region on Tuesday, bringing our best chance of the 7-day period for more widespread precipitation. Accompanying surface front should be stronger than Sunday's, and moisture pooling along boundary will offer plenty of fuel under cooler temps aloft. Still, total instability and shear will be modest at best, near 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE and near 25kt of 0- 6km bulk shear. So chance for severe seems low, but much-needed rain is a good bet for parts of our area. Otherwise very warm temperatures in the mid 90s will start the week Monday before settling back toward Tuesday under more clouds and precip potential. A bit cooler Wednesday behind shortwave and surface front, but only back into the mid and upper 80s. Thursday looks dry and a little warmer again as mid level heights begin to build into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 Another quiet TAF period is set for the 18z issuance, with the only change groups being a result of changing wind directions. Winds today are expect to be light and out of the southeast, becoming variable overnight. Tomorrow wind speeds pick up and are back over 10 kts out of the south/southwest. Some models are indicating that winds gust of around 20 kts could crop up at the KOFK TAF but better chances lie to the west of there. Overall VFR conditions are expected to carry us through the period with only patchy cumulus to spoil blue skies. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dergan AVIATION...Petersen