855 
FXUS64 KAMA 220535 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.AVIATION...06z TAF Cycle... 
VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through the 06z
period. Winds are expected to continue to veer towards the south 
and southwest into the early morning hours. Wind speeds will 
increase after sunrise to around 15 to 25 knots at all locations 
and will continue into the evening hours. Mostly clear skies are 
expected.

Muscha/Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ 

AVIATION...
00z TAF Issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
three TAF sites through the period. Winds will return to the
southwest by the morning hours with increasing wind speeds. Winds
will be around 15 to 25 knots through the day with gusts up to 30
to 35 knots possible. A few high clouds this evening will begin to
clear out as mostly clear skies are expected through tomorrow.

Rutt

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

A cold front has moved across the area this morning, having made
it all the way down to the Big Bend of Texas this afternoon.
Behind the front, low cloud deck is breaking up giving way to
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. This will allow temperatures
to recover in the post-frontal environment to the 70s, with a few
favored areas approaching 80, during peak heating. As a cooler
airmass has settled into place, and skies are expected to clear,
overnight lows will drop into the 50s. The break offered today
from the summer heat, though, will be short lived. 

A warm front will move back across the region on Tuesday as the
upper level ridge progresses east into New Mexico and strengthens.
Due to both features, pressure gradients will increase leading to
a breezy Tuesday afternoon. As the ridge strengthens, the ridge
axis is expected to be along the eastern side of the Rockies with
high temperatures being in the mid 90s in the western zones to the
mid 80s in the southeastern zones. Model guidance is in agreement
that the upper high will move over west Texas (centered just south
of Palo Duro Canyon), with the axis being across the central
Panhandles on Wednesday. This will lead to hot, dry and breezy
conditions with temperatures ranging from the upper 90s in the
southeastern Panhandles to around 107 degrees in the heat favored
areas such as Borger and the Palo Duro Canyon State Park. The
upper high slowly moves east where, with the ridge axis, the
eastern combined Panhandles will experience the hottest day of the
week for that area as highs range from the upper 90s in the
northwestern Panhandles to 106 in Palo Duro Canyon. Northwest flow
aloft will start to make an appearance late Thursday night, with
some showers and thunderstorms potentially affecting the northern
half of the combined Panhandles. It is too early to tell if there
is any severe potential with these storms, and coverage could
potentially be sparse.  

Another disturbance is expected to dive down across the northern
Plains late Thursday night, with an upper low also moving into
southern California. The combination of both features will help to
pull in moisture into the area, with dewpoint temperatures
starting a gradual climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Dynamics are not the best late initially, though an approaching
cold front and shortwave disturbance Friday into Saturday and
favorable jet dynamics aloft will help to increase coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Model solutions are coming into line
that precipitable water values will increase to around 1.25-1.75 
inches in the combined Panhandles (some extreme outliers push 2
inches), and instability will be on a considerable increase 
during the Friday night into Saturday timeframe. An example of
this would be guidance suggesting 2500 to 4500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and
20-40 kts of effective bulk shear being available to storms.
Enough variance in the solutions are in place that some guidance
have this missing the region to the south, while others place this
more into Kansas. Either which way, the Friday to Sunday window is
a target of opportunity that needs to be monitored, as recent
models are trending towards this being our next opportunity for
rainfall (heavy at times) and thunderstorms (strong to severe
being possible).  

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

5/29