855 FXUS64 KAMA 220535 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021 .AVIATION...06z TAF Cycle... VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through the 06z period. Winds are expected to continue to veer towards the south and southwest into the early morning hours. Wind speeds will increase after sunrise to around 15 to 25 knots at all locations and will continue into the evening hours. Mostly clear skies are expected. Muscha/Meccariello && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ AVIATION... 00z TAF Issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all three TAF sites through the period. Winds will return to the southwest by the morning hours with increasing wind speeds. Winds will be around 15 to 25 knots through the day with gusts up to 30 to 35 knots possible. A few high clouds this evening will begin to clear out as mostly clear skies are expected through tomorrow. Rutt PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 216 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021/ DISCUSSION... A cold front has moved across the area this morning, having made it all the way down to the Big Bend of Texas this afternoon. Behind the front, low cloud deck is breaking up giving way to partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. This will allow temperatures to recover in the post-frontal environment to the 70s, with a few favored areas approaching 80, during peak heating. As a cooler airmass has settled into place, and skies are expected to clear, overnight lows will drop into the 50s. The break offered today from the summer heat, though, will be short lived. A warm front will move back across the region on Tuesday as the upper level ridge progresses east into New Mexico and strengthens. Due to both features, pressure gradients will increase leading to a breezy Tuesday afternoon. As the ridge strengthens, the ridge axis is expected to be along the eastern side of the Rockies with high temperatures being in the mid 90s in the western zones to the mid 80s in the southeastern zones. Model guidance is in agreement that the upper high will move over west Texas (centered just south of Palo Duro Canyon), with the axis being across the central Panhandles on Wednesday. This will lead to hot, dry and breezy conditions with temperatures ranging from the upper 90s in the southeastern Panhandles to around 107 degrees in the heat favored areas such as Borger and the Palo Duro Canyon State Park. The upper high slowly moves east where, with the ridge axis, the eastern combined Panhandles will experience the hottest day of the week for that area as highs range from the upper 90s in the northwestern Panhandles to 106 in Palo Duro Canyon. Northwest flow aloft will start to make an appearance late Thursday night, with some showers and thunderstorms potentially affecting the northern half of the combined Panhandles. It is too early to tell if there is any severe potential with these storms, and coverage could potentially be sparse. Another disturbance is expected to dive down across the northern Plains late Thursday night, with an upper low also moving into southern California. The combination of both features will help to pull in moisture into the area, with dewpoint temperatures starting a gradual climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Dynamics are not the best late initially, though an approaching cold front and shortwave disturbance Friday into Saturday and favorable jet dynamics aloft will help to increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Model solutions are coming into line that precipitable water values will increase to around 1.25-1.75 inches in the combined Panhandles (some extreme outliers push 2 inches), and instability will be on a considerable increase during the Friday night into Saturday timeframe. An example of this would be guidance suggesting 2500 to 4500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear being available to storms. Enough variance in the solutions are in place that some guidance have this missing the region to the south, while others place this more into Kansas. Either which way, the Friday to Sunday window is a target of opportunity that needs to be monitored, as recent models are trending towards this being our next opportunity for rainfall (heavy at times) and thunderstorms (strong to severe being possible). Bieda && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 5/29