068 
FXUS64 KTSA 152327
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Available guidance suggests nwrn AR sites may experience some fog
late tonight, as strong radiational cooling occurs under clear skies
and calm wind. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected all sites through
the forecast period under strong mid/upper level ridging.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 208 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Anomalously strong upper level ridge currently centered over the
Four Corners Region will continue to build into the area over the
next couple of days, which will maintain hot and dry weather for
much of our forecast area through the end of the week.
Temperatures approaching 100 will be possible for some locations 
by Thursday as the ridge axis becomes more oriented across 
northeastern Oklahoma. A few isolated afternoon showers or storms 
will be possible on the eastern periphery of the ridge in 
northwest Arkansas the next couple of days, but confidence is low 
in this occurrence and thus left out any mentionable PoPs for this
forecast. 

The ridge will begin to break down and move back west some by this
weekend as a weak trough moves across the Northern Plains. At the
same time, a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to approach the Gulf Coast helping to push the ridge back
to the west. This tropical system is not anticipated to have any
further impacts on our area, besides some increasing clouds across
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, as mid level flow 
should steer it northeastward after landfall away from us. Recent 
model runs have been more pessimistic about the chances of 
precipitation this weekend as the cold front associated with the 
upper trough is forecast to stall north of our area Friday and 
Saturday, limiting rainfall chances on those days. 

A stronger trough is forecast to move into the Plains by early
next week which should be enough to push a cold front into the
area by Monday bringing a bit of relief to the heat and some
better rain chances, particularly across far eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas, early next week. With increasing moisture, some
of the storms could be strong to severe, but widespread severe 
potential remains limited at this time.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   71  94  72  97 /   0  10   0   0 
MLC   69  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   70  96  70  98 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   67  92  67  94 /   0  10   0   0 
BYV   68  90  69  94 /   0  10   0  10 
MKO   69  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   69  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   69  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   70  95  72  94 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....04
AVIATION.....69