068 FXUS64 KTSA 152327 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Available guidance suggests nwrn AR sites may experience some fog late tonight, as strong radiational cooling occurs under clear skies and calm wind. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected all sites through the forecast period under strong mid/upper level ridging. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 208 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/ DISCUSSION... Anomalously strong upper level ridge currently centered over the Four Corners Region will continue to build into the area over the next couple of days, which will maintain hot and dry weather for much of our forecast area through the end of the week. Temperatures approaching 100 will be possible for some locations by Thursday as the ridge axis becomes more oriented across northeastern Oklahoma. A few isolated afternoon showers or storms will be possible on the eastern periphery of the ridge in northwest Arkansas the next couple of days, but confidence is low in this occurrence and thus left out any mentionable PoPs for this forecast. The ridge will begin to break down and move back west some by this weekend as a weak trough moves across the Northern Plains. At the same time, a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to approach the Gulf Coast helping to push the ridge back to the west. This tropical system is not anticipated to have any further impacts on our area, besides some increasing clouds across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, as mid level flow should steer it northeastward after landfall away from us. Recent model runs have been more pessimistic about the chances of precipitation this weekend as the cold front associated with the upper trough is forecast to stall north of our area Friday and Saturday, limiting rainfall chances on those days. A stronger trough is forecast to move into the Plains by early next week which should be enough to push a cold front into the area by Monday bringing a bit of relief to the heat and some better rain chances, particularly across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, early next week. With increasing moisture, some of the storms could be strong to severe, but widespread severe potential remains limited at this time. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 72 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 71 94 72 97 / 0 10 0 0 MLC 69 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 70 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 67 92 67 94 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 68 90 69 94 / 0 10 0 10 MKO 69 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 69 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 F10 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 70 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ LONG TERM....04 AVIATION.....69