070 
FXUS63 KIND 151337
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 936 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Current forecast still looks good for the most part, based 
on this morning's upper air, satellite, and surface reports. 

Did bump up the winds a bit more today, with upper air suggesting 
mixing down some gusts near 18 kts later today. Also, added a little 
more cloud cover this afternoon, as it appears convective 
temperatures will be reached by early afternoon.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in 
place over southern central Canada. This was resulting in cooler 
north surface flow in place across Central Indiana. GOES16 shows 
clear skies across the forecast area. Aloft water vapor show strong 
ridging in place over the Rockies extending north into Canada. The 
lee side of the ridge was allowing a NNW flow into Indiana from 
Canada and the upper midwest. Water vapor showed dry air and 
subsidence in place over Indiana.

Today...Models show the strong ridge in place to the west continuing 
to provide NW flow to Indiana. A weak short wave is depicted to push 
across eastern Indiana and Ohio today...but little to no moisture is 
available for this feature. Forecast soundings through the day show 
a very dry column. Convective temperatures appear to be reached late 
in the day...but a mid level inversion in place along with the 
expected continued subsidence should just result in a stray 
afternoon CU cloud. Thus will go mostly sunny today and stick close 
to the NBM on Temps.

Tonight...the strong ridging to the west will make some progress 
eastward to the plains...but lee side NW flow will persist across 
Indiana. Subsidence looks to remain in play and Time heights and 
forecast soundings continue to show a dry column. Meanwhile at the 
surface strong high pressure will remain in place over the Great 
Lakes spilling into the Ohio Valley. Thus again...mostly clear skies 
and an ideal set-up for radiational cooling. Will trend temps at or 
below the NBM.

On Wednesday...the strong ridge axis is suggested to finally arrive 
over the western Great Lakes...however this will result in little 
overall change in the ongoing weather across Indiana. Subsidence and 
surface high pressure will remain in place across Indiana. 
Again...forecast soundings remain dry...but a few afternoon CU are 
possible. Thus once again will trend toward mostly sunny with temps 
near the NBM.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Persistent northwesterly flow aloft is expected for much of the rest 
of the week as Indiana remains sandwiched between a strong ridge 
across the Rocky Mountains and broad troughing across the Eastern 
United states.  This northwesterly flow will help bring near normal 
temperatures during the daytime hours, but below normal temperatures 
during the overnight. These cooler temperatures are a result of the 
dry air that will continue to advect into the area that will keep 
dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. With this dry air and 
several days of dry weather, slightly elevated fire weather 
conditions will continue through Thursday, but with generally light 
winds, the threat will remain low.  

The pattern begins to shift late week as the ridge to the west 
begins to break down and a strong upper level trough moves to the 
north of the forecast area. Southerly flow will also return by 
Friday which will bring an increase in humidity to the area. A cold 
front associated with this trough is currently expected to move 
through the area Friday into Saturday bringing rain to the area, 
although confidence in the exact timing remains low.  A tropical 
system looks to impact the Southern United States sometime this 
weekend, but with the trough passing through central Indiana, any 
impacts should remain well south of the forecast area.  Another 
system looks to arrive late this weekend into early next week, but 
with such uncertainty, will keep POPs limited and broad brushed.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

IMPACTS:

- VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period. 

DISCUSSION: High pressure over the upper midwest will build across 
the Taf sites today and tonight. Forecast soundings and Time heights 
reveal a dry column. A stray afternoon diurnal CU cloud will be 
possible...but expect unlimited ceilings. Light north winds with the 
arrival of the high pressure system will persist.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Update...JAS
Short Term...Puma
Long Term...White
Aviation...JP