070 FXUS63 KIND 151337 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 937 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .Forecast Update... Issued at 936 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Current forecast still looks good for the most part, based on this morning's upper air, satellite, and surface reports. Did bump up the winds a bit more today, with upper air suggesting mixing down some gusts near 18 kts later today. Also, added a little more cloud cover this afternoon, as it appears convective temperatures will be reached by early afternoon. && .Short Term...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over southern central Canada. This was resulting in cooler north surface flow in place across Central Indiana. GOES16 shows clear skies across the forecast area. Aloft water vapor show strong ridging in place over the Rockies extending north into Canada. The lee side of the ridge was allowing a NNW flow into Indiana from Canada and the upper midwest. Water vapor showed dry air and subsidence in place over Indiana. Today...Models show the strong ridge in place to the west continuing to provide NW flow to Indiana. A weak short wave is depicted to push across eastern Indiana and Ohio today...but little to no moisture is available for this feature. Forecast soundings through the day show a very dry column. Convective temperatures appear to be reached late in the day...but a mid level inversion in place along with the expected continued subsidence should just result in a stray afternoon CU cloud. Thus will go mostly sunny today and stick close to the NBM on Temps. Tonight...the strong ridging to the west will make some progress eastward to the plains...but lee side NW flow will persist across Indiana. Subsidence looks to remain in play and Time heights and forecast soundings continue to show a dry column. Meanwhile at the surface strong high pressure will remain in place over the Great Lakes spilling into the Ohio Valley. Thus again...mostly clear skies and an ideal set-up for radiational cooling. Will trend temps at or below the NBM. On Wednesday...the strong ridge axis is suggested to finally arrive over the western Great Lakes...however this will result in little overall change in the ongoing weather across Indiana. Subsidence and surface high pressure will remain in place across Indiana. Again...forecast soundings remain dry...but a few afternoon CU are possible. Thus once again will trend toward mostly sunny with temps near the NBM. && .Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Persistent northwesterly flow aloft is expected for much of the rest of the week as Indiana remains sandwiched between a strong ridge across the Rocky Mountains and broad troughing across the Eastern United states. This northwesterly flow will help bring near normal temperatures during the daytime hours, but below normal temperatures during the overnight. These cooler temperatures are a result of the dry air that will continue to advect into the area that will keep dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. With this dry air and several days of dry weather, slightly elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Thursday, but with generally light winds, the threat will remain low. The pattern begins to shift late week as the ridge to the west begins to break down and a strong upper level trough moves to the north of the forecast area. Southerly flow will also return by Friday which will bring an increase in humidity to the area. A cold front associated with this trough is currently expected to move through the area Friday into Saturday bringing rain to the area, although confidence in the exact timing remains low. A tropical system looks to impact the Southern United States sometime this weekend, but with the trough passing through central Indiana, any impacts should remain well south of the forecast area. Another system looks to arrive late this weekend into early next week, but with such uncertainty, will keep POPs limited and broad brushed. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 IMPACTS: - VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period. DISCUSSION: High pressure over the upper midwest will build across the Taf sites today and tonight. Forecast soundings and Time heights reveal a dry column. A stray afternoon diurnal CU cloud will be possible...but expect unlimited ceilings. Light north winds with the arrival of the high pressure system will persist. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Update...JAS Short Term...Puma Long Term...White Aviation...JP