722 
FXUS62 KJAX 102354
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
754 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Saturday]

Sea breeze convection has stabilized the airmass across all local
terminals this evening with just a low chance of showers over the
next couple of hours as diurnal instability and low level outflows
fade. Winds will transition to SW again tonight with speeds
generally < 6 kts inland to 5-7 kts at coastal terminals under
prevailing VFR conditions except for potential ground fog and
thin, shallow low stratus at VQQ and GNV where heavy rainfall
occurred today. SSI also had heavy rainfall, but stronger gradient
winds and land breeze are expected to keep the airmass more mixed
and thus reduced fog/stratus potential. Breezy SW winds will
increase mid-morning Friday with gusts 20-25 kts at times
especially at coastal terminals in the afternoon as the east 
coast sea breeze attempts to edge inland. Weaker SW flow should 
let the east coast sea breeze drift inland just past SGJ, but to 
the north strong SW winds will likely keep the east coast sea 
breeze pinned along the local Atlantic coast CRG and SSI. Much 
lower rainfall potential Friday due to drier mid level air across 
the area, with the best afternoon or evening rain chances near SSI
closer to a slowly moving frontal zone settling southward across 
GA under a passing upper level disturbance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [505 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Currently, the Atlantic coast sea breeze is just west of I-95 and
the Gulf coast is just east of I-75. Storms will continue to
develop as boundaries collide in the US 301 corridor whether the
collision be from sea breezes or outflows. Some stronger storms
could produce wind gusts up to 45 mph and heavy rainfall. With
faster storm motion today compared to yesterday, flooding will be
less of a threat but localized flooding is possible for any
training storm. Showers and storms will linger into the evening
hours. Skies clear overnight as southwesterly flow advects drier
air into the region from the Gulf. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure shifts to the southeast as a trough and surface front
move across the southeastern CONUS. On Friday, strengthening 
southwesterly flow in the lower and mid levels will bring a drier 
airmass from the Gulf limiting convection and pinning the Atlantic
sea breeze to the coast. A few storms may pop up along I-95 
corridor as the west coast sea breeze collides with the east 
coast. The best chance for rain will be across inland southeast 
Georgia as a series of upper impulses move through the trough and 
spread convection into the area from the northwest beginning late 
Friday afternoon. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms 
spread from northwest to southeast Saturday into Saturday night as
the front approaches southeast Georgia. Hot temperatures 
anticipated on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat 
indices around 100 along the I-95 corridor. On Saturday, cloudy 
skies and rain will keep highs in the mid to upper 80s across 
inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley with 90s elsewhere.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...

Unsettled weather will continue on Sunday and through next week 
as successive disturbances & fronts press toward and through the 
area.

An upper trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen into the
southeast CONUS by mid-week as a few shortwave troughs and
associated surface frontal boundaries come near or sink into the
region. On Sunday, a frontal boundary will push through the area
and then dissipate. Another boundary will move into the
southeastern CONUS Monday night into Tuesday and then another
boundary approaches the area Wednesday night. The combination of
prevailing west-southwest flow increasing moisture to the area,
diurnal instability and multiple frontal/shortwave influences
should support daily numerous showers and storms across the area.
Temperatures will trend near to above normal this period.


.MARINE...

A high pressure ridge will remain south of the area through the 
weekend and into early next week. Slightly stronger south and 
southwest winds are expected tonight and again on Friday night. A 
trough of low pressure and weak cold front will move over the 
coastal waters during the weekend and become stationary south of 
the waters with increasing thunderstorm activity and west- 
southwesterly flow. 

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today. Low to moderate
risk tomorrow with continued south-southwesterly flow.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Strengthening westerly transport winds ahead of an approaching 
front will lead to high dispersions across the area on Friday. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening 
for inland locations, mainly between I-75 and I-95. Breezy 
southwesterly surface winds will develop on Friday, with gusts up
to 25 MPH possible. Shower potential on Friday will be focused
across inland southeast Georgia. The front will bring widespread 
showers and storms to the area this weekend. Despite breezy winds,
fire danger will remain low with humid conditions continuing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  71  92  71  88  70 /  30  30  30  60  50 
SSI  77  93  76  91  75 /  20  20  20  60  60 
JAX  73  96  73  92  72 /  30  10  30  60  50 
SGJ  73  94  73  90  73 /  20  20  10  40  40 
GNV  70  93  70  89  70 /  10  10  30  50  40 
OCF  72  94  72  90  73 /  10  10  20  30  40 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&