722 FXUS62 KJAX 102354 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 754 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] Sea breeze convection has stabilized the airmass across all local terminals this evening with just a low chance of showers over the next couple of hours as diurnal instability and low level outflows fade. Winds will transition to SW again tonight with speeds generally < 6 kts inland to 5-7 kts at coastal terminals under prevailing VFR conditions except for potential ground fog and thin, shallow low stratus at VQQ and GNV where heavy rainfall occurred today. SSI also had heavy rainfall, but stronger gradient winds and land breeze are expected to keep the airmass more mixed and thus reduced fog/stratus potential. Breezy SW winds will increase mid-morning Friday with gusts 20-25 kts at times especially at coastal terminals in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze attempts to edge inland. Weaker SW flow should let the east coast sea breeze drift inland just past SGJ, but to the north strong SW winds will likely keep the east coast sea breeze pinned along the local Atlantic coast CRG and SSI. Much lower rainfall potential Friday due to drier mid level air across the area, with the best afternoon or evening rain chances near SSI closer to a slowly moving frontal zone settling southward across GA under a passing upper level disturbance. && .PREV DISCUSSION [505 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Currently, the Atlantic coast sea breeze is just west of I-95 and the Gulf coast is just east of I-75. Storms will continue to develop as boundaries collide in the US 301 corridor whether the collision be from sea breezes or outflows. Some stronger storms could produce wind gusts up to 45 mph and heavy rainfall. With faster storm motion today compared to yesterday, flooding will be less of a threat but localized flooding is possible for any training storm. Showers and storms will linger into the evening hours. Skies clear overnight as southwesterly flow advects drier air into the region from the Gulf. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... High pressure shifts to the southeast as a trough and surface front move across the southeastern CONUS. On Friday, strengthening southwesterly flow in the lower and mid levels will bring a drier airmass from the Gulf limiting convection and pinning the Atlantic sea breeze to the coast. A few storms may pop up along I-95 corridor as the west coast sea breeze collides with the east coast. The best chance for rain will be across inland southeast Georgia as a series of upper impulses move through the trough and spread convection into the area from the northwest beginning late Friday afternoon. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms spread from northwest to southeast Saturday into Saturday night as the front approaches southeast Georgia. Hot temperatures anticipated on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices around 100 along the I-95 corridor. On Saturday, cloudy skies and rain will keep highs in the mid to upper 80s across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley with 90s elsewhere. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]... Unsettled weather will continue on Sunday and through next week as successive disturbances & fronts press toward and through the area. An upper trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen into the southeast CONUS by mid-week as a few shortwave troughs and associated surface frontal boundaries come near or sink into the region. On Sunday, a frontal boundary will push through the area and then dissipate. Another boundary will move into the southeastern CONUS Monday night into Tuesday and then another boundary approaches the area Wednesday night. The combination of prevailing west-southwest flow increasing moisture to the area, diurnal instability and multiple frontal/shortwave influences should support daily numerous showers and storms across the area. Temperatures will trend near to above normal this period. .MARINE... A high pressure ridge will remain south of the area through the weekend and into early next week. Slightly stronger south and southwest winds are expected tonight and again on Friday night. A trough of low pressure and weak cold front will move over the coastal waters during the weekend and become stationary south of the waters with increasing thunderstorm activity and west- southwesterly flow. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today. Low to moderate risk tomorrow with continued south-southwesterly flow. .FIRE WEATHER... Strengthening westerly transport winds ahead of an approaching front will lead to high dispersions across the area on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into this evening for inland locations, mainly between I-75 and I-95. Breezy southwesterly surface winds will develop on Friday, with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Shower potential on Friday will be focused across inland southeast Georgia. The front will bring widespread showers and storms to the area this weekend. Despite breezy winds, fire danger will remain low with humid conditions continuing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 92 71 88 70 / 30 30 30 60 50 SSI 77 93 76 91 75 / 20 20 20 60 60 JAX 73 96 73 92 72 / 30 10 30 60 50 SGJ 73 94 73 90 73 / 20 20 10 40 40 GNV 70 93 70 89 70 / 10 10 30 50 40 OCF 72 94 72 90 73 / 10 10 20 30 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&