978 
FXUS62 KJAX 051728
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
128 PM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light west to
southwest winds will become southeast for the east coast TAF sites
as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Light and variable
winds are expected overnight, with a light westerly wind on
Tuesday. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1011 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure centered over our area will continue to gradually
weaken as it shifts southward into north central FL this afternoon
and then central FL overnight tonight. A deep and dry
northwesterly flow pattern will also continue locally, as cutoff
troughing remains in place off New England and ridging aloft over
the western Gulf of Mexico only gradually expands northeastward.
Strong subsidence will keep fair skies in place over our region,
with full sunshine allowing highs to rebound to the 75-80 degree 
range this afternoon, with a loose local pressure gradient 
allowing the Atlantic sea breeze to develop at coastal locations 
shortly after noon and then progressing well inland past the U.S. 
Highway 301 corridor by late afternoon. Strong radiational cooling
will continue tonight beneath fair skies, with lows falling to 
the mid and upper 40s inland and the lower 50s at area beaches,
where a light south-southwesterly breeze will prevail throughout 
the overnight hours.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Surface ridge will be situated south of the area, producing a 
light west southwest flow. Ridging aloft will maintain dry and 
warm conditions. Maximum temperatures will reach the low 80s 
inland on Tuesday and the mid 80s Wednesday. Afternoon seabreezes 
will keep the coast a little cooler. Nightly low temperatures will
be in the 50s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

A deep sw flow will be over the area ahead of a slow moving cold
front Thursday through Saturday. Upper troughing will develop over
the eastern U.S. with multiple short wave troughs affecting the
area. This will bring a chance of showers on Thursday to mainly 
se GA...with thunderstorms possible across se GA/ne FL Friday 
through Sunday as moisture and instability increase. The front 
will move into the area on Sunday. Temperatures will be at or 
above average through the period.


.MARINE...

High pressure centered directly over our waters this morning will
weaken and shift southward over the Florida peninsula through
midweek, resulting in prevailing light southwesterly winds during
the morning and overnight hours, with afternoon sea breeze 
development near shore each afternoon. Seas of 2-3 feet will
prevail both near shore and offshore through midweek. Southerly 
winds will gradually strengthen beginning on Wednesday evening, 
well in advance of a cold front that will be moving slowly into 
the southeastern states late this week and into the weekend. Wind
speeds and seas will remain below Caution levels throughout the
week.

Rip Currents: A fading northeasterly swell will combine with
onshore winds this afternoon to create a low-end moderate risk at
the northeast FL beaches. Low wave heights will result in a low
risk at the southeast GA beaches. A low risk is anticipated at all
area beaches on Tuesday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum relative humidities will be critically low over inland
areas this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Light surface and 
transport winds will result in low dispersions today and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  49  80  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SSI  57  75  57  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JAX  50  81  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  51  78  56  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GNV  50  81  50  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  50  81  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&