978 FXUS62 KJAX 051728 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 128 PM EDT Mon Apr 5 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light west to southwest winds will become southeast for the east coast TAF sites as the east coast sea breeze moves inland. Light and variable winds are expected overnight, with a light westerly wind on Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1011 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... High pressure centered over our area will continue to gradually weaken as it shifts southward into north central FL this afternoon and then central FL overnight tonight. A deep and dry northwesterly flow pattern will also continue locally, as cutoff troughing remains in place off New England and ridging aloft over the western Gulf of Mexico only gradually expands northeastward. Strong subsidence will keep fair skies in place over our region, with full sunshine allowing highs to rebound to the 75-80 degree range this afternoon, with a loose local pressure gradient allowing the Atlantic sea breeze to develop at coastal locations shortly after noon and then progressing well inland past the U.S. Highway 301 corridor by late afternoon. Strong radiational cooling will continue tonight beneath fair skies, with lows falling to the mid and upper 40s inland and the lower 50s at area beaches, where a light south-southwesterly breeze will prevail throughout the overnight hours. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... Surface ridge will be situated south of the area, producing a light west southwest flow. Ridging aloft will maintain dry and warm conditions. Maximum temperatures will reach the low 80s inland on Tuesday and the mid 80s Wednesday. Afternoon seabreezes will keep the coast a little cooler. Nightly low temperatures will be in the 50s. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]... A deep sw flow will be over the area ahead of a slow moving cold front Thursday through Saturday. Upper troughing will develop over the eastern U.S. with multiple short wave troughs affecting the area. This will bring a chance of showers on Thursday to mainly se GA...with thunderstorms possible across se GA/ne FL Friday through Sunday as moisture and instability increase. The front will move into the area on Sunday. Temperatures will be at or above average through the period. .MARINE... High pressure centered directly over our waters this morning will weaken and shift southward over the Florida peninsula through midweek, resulting in prevailing light southwesterly winds during the morning and overnight hours, with afternoon sea breeze development near shore each afternoon. Seas of 2-3 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through midweek. Southerly winds will gradually strengthen beginning on Wednesday evening, well in advance of a cold front that will be moving slowly into the southeastern states late this week and into the weekend. Wind speeds and seas will remain below Caution levels throughout the week. Rip Currents: A fading northeasterly swell will combine with onshore winds this afternoon to create a low-end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches. Low wave heights will result in a low risk at the southeast GA beaches. A low risk is anticipated at all area beaches on Tuesday. .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum relative humidities will be critically low over inland areas this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Light surface and transport winds will result in low dispersions today and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 49 80 51 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 57 75 57 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 50 81 52 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 51 78 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 50 81 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 50 81 52 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&