759 
FXUS64 KAMA 050827
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
327 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will track across the Panhandles today. Cannot
rule out the possibility for isolated showers or even
thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area today.
Shortwave ridging will briefly build in behind the exiting
shortwave trough later today and this evening. A return to
southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Tuesday ahead of an
approaching closed upper low from the Great Basin region will
result in increasing high level cloudiness across the Panhandles
Tuesday. This closed upper low will track across the central
Rockies late Tuesday and will then approach the Oklahoma Panhandle
and western/southwestern Kansas Tuesday night. Cannot rule out the
possibility for some convection as far south as the western or
central Oklahoma Panhandles Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. The
closed upper low will continue to move slowly east away from the
Panhandles Wednesday into Thursday. Drier northwesterly upper flow
Wednesday through Saturday. A shortwave trough will track across
the Panhandles Saturday night and Sunday.

Surface low over eastern Colorado today with surface trough across
the eastern Plains of New Mexico will deepen today and tonight
which will result in tightening of the surface pressure gradient
and increasing southwesterly winds. Low level southerly to
southwesterly nocturnal jet tonight will develop around 40 to 50
knots across the Panhandles. Surface low will move into western
Kansas Tuesday with the surface trough draped across the
northwestern sections of the Panhandles. Surface low drops south
into the Oklahoma Panhandle late Tuesday afternoon and will usher 
in a strong cold front between 00Z Wednesday and 09Z Wednesday. 
Much cooler conditions for the middle of the week and then a quick
warmup Thursday as lee surface low pressure develops west of the 
Panhandles. Another cold front expected Thursday night with 
slightly cooler conditions Friday. Then dry and warmer over the 
weekend.

Schneider

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Today, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the
western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles. Max RFTIs are
forecast to be in the 2 to 4 range across this area today. Minimum
afternoon relative humidity values in the northwestern Panhandles
are expected to be as low as 7 to 14 percent with southwest
downsloping 20 foot winds increasing to around 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to near 30 to 35 mph.

Tuesday is expected to be more widespread elevated with critical
fire weather conditions across mainly the western and central
Panhandles. However, one concern will be the increase of high
level cloudiness which may inhibit mixing and result in not as
strong winds during the afternoon. Max RFTIs of 5 to 7 are 
forecast Tuesday across the western and much of the central 
Panhandles. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values are 
expected to be as low as 7 to 10 percent across most of the 
Panhandles on Tuesday with downsloping west and southwesterly 20 
foot winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 40 mph. The LLTR 
is forecast to be from far West Texas northward across eastern New
Mexico and the Panhandles into southeastern Colorado and 
southwestern Kansas by Tuesday afternoon. The 500 mb jet will 
stretch from the southwestern states and the southern Rockies into
the southern Texas Panhandle and most of West Texas Tuesday 
afternoon. The favored area would be across the eastern Plains of 
New Mexico into much of the Texas Panhandle. Another big concern 
will be the approach of a cold front into the Oklahoma Panhandle 
around 7 PM to 9 PM Tuesday evening which will shift the winds 
from the southwest to the northwest and north. The cold front is 
forecast to move across the northern half of the Texas Panhandles 
around 9 PM to 12 Midnight Tuesday evening/night and then across 
the remainder of the Texas Panhandle between 12 Midnight and 3 AM 
late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. The Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect for portions of the Panhandles Tuesday.

Elevated fire weather concerns may return again Wednesday through
Sunday across mainly the western and northern Panhandles. Max 
RFTIs are forecast to be as high as 2 to 4 with minimum afternoon 
relative humidity values as low as 8 to 12 percent. 20 foot winds 
could be as high as 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts from the 
northwest to north and northeast Wednesday through Friday and then
becoming south and southwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts 
Saturday. Winds will shift to the north and northeast again
possibly as high as 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts on Sunday 
behind another cold front. Whether elevated fire weather 
conditions do develop will greatly depend on the strength of the 
winds.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                84  55  84  42  72 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Beaver OK                  86  57  85  42  69 /   5   5   0   5   0 
Boise City OK              86  49  80  37  68 /   5   5   0   5   0 
Borger TX                  88  59  87  45  75 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              88  55  85  42  74 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Canyon TX                  85  53  85  41  73 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               81  57  87  47  73 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 85  47  80  37  71 /   5   5   0   0   0 
Guymon OK                  87  55  83  40  70 /  10  10   0   5   0 
Hereford TX                86  52  84  41  76 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                82  57  86  43  71 /   0   5   0   5   0 
Pampa TX                   82  56  84  42  71 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Shamrock TX                80  56  87  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Wellington TX              80  57  88  48  76 /   5   0   0   0   0 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday 
     evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hartley...
     Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...
     Randall...Sherman.

OK...None.

&&

$$

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