759 FXUS64 KAMA 050827 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 327 AM CDT Mon Apr 5 2021 .DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will track across the Panhandles today. Cannot rule out the possibility for isolated showers or even thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area today. Shortwave ridging will briefly build in behind the exiting shortwave trough later today and this evening. A return to southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Tuesday ahead of an approaching closed upper low from the Great Basin region will result in increasing high level cloudiness across the Panhandles Tuesday. This closed upper low will track across the central Rockies late Tuesday and will then approach the Oklahoma Panhandle and western/southwestern Kansas Tuesday night. Cannot rule out the possibility for some convection as far south as the western or central Oklahoma Panhandles Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. The closed upper low will continue to move slowly east away from the Panhandles Wednesday into Thursday. Drier northwesterly upper flow Wednesday through Saturday. A shortwave trough will track across the Panhandles Saturday night and Sunday. Surface low over eastern Colorado today with surface trough across the eastern Plains of New Mexico will deepen today and tonight which will result in tightening of the surface pressure gradient and increasing southwesterly winds. Low level southerly to southwesterly nocturnal jet tonight will develop around 40 to 50 knots across the Panhandles. Surface low will move into western Kansas Tuesday with the surface trough draped across the northwestern sections of the Panhandles. Surface low drops south into the Oklahoma Panhandle late Tuesday afternoon and will usher in a strong cold front between 00Z Wednesday and 09Z Wednesday. Much cooler conditions for the middle of the week and then a quick warmup Thursday as lee surface low pressure develops west of the Panhandles. Another cold front expected Thursday night with slightly cooler conditions Friday. Then dry and warmer over the weekend. Schneider && .FIRE WEATHER... Today, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles. Max RFTIs are forecast to be in the 2 to 4 range across this area today. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the northwestern Panhandles are expected to be as low as 7 to 14 percent with southwest downsloping 20 foot winds increasing to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to near 30 to 35 mph. Tuesday is expected to be more widespread elevated with critical fire weather conditions across mainly the western and central Panhandles. However, one concern will be the increase of high level cloudiness which may inhibit mixing and result in not as strong winds during the afternoon. Max RFTIs of 5 to 7 are forecast Tuesday across the western and much of the central Panhandles. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected to be as low as 7 to 10 percent across most of the Panhandles on Tuesday with downsloping west and southwesterly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 40 mph. The LLTR is forecast to be from far West Texas northward across eastern New Mexico and the Panhandles into southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas by Tuesday afternoon. The 500 mb jet will stretch from the southwestern states and the southern Rockies into the southern Texas Panhandle and most of West Texas Tuesday afternoon. The favored area would be across the eastern Plains of New Mexico into much of the Texas Panhandle. Another big concern will be the approach of a cold front into the Oklahoma Panhandle around 7 PM to 9 PM Tuesday evening which will shift the winds from the southwest to the northwest and north. The cold front is forecast to move across the northern half of the Texas Panhandles around 9 PM to 12 Midnight Tuesday evening/night and then across the remainder of the Texas Panhandle between 12 Midnight and 3 AM late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. The Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for portions of the Panhandles Tuesday. Elevated fire weather concerns may return again Wednesday through Sunday across mainly the western and northern Panhandles. Max RFTIs are forecast to be as high as 2 to 4 with minimum afternoon relative humidity values as low as 8 to 12 percent. 20 foot winds could be as high as 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts from the northwest to north and northeast Wednesday through Friday and then becoming south and southwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts Saturday. Winds will shift to the north and northeast again possibly as high as 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts on Sunday behind another cold front. Whether elevated fire weather conditions do develop will greatly depend on the strength of the winds. Schneider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 84 55 84 42 72 / 10 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 86 57 85 42 69 / 5 5 0 5 0 Boise City OK 86 49 80 37 68 / 5 5 0 5 0 Borger TX 88 59 87 45 75 / 10 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 88 55 85 42 74 / 10 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 85 53 85 41 73 / 10 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 81 57 87 47 73 / 10 10 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 85 47 80 37 71 / 5 5 0 0 0 Guymon OK 87 55 83 40 70 / 10 10 0 5 0 Hereford TX 86 52 84 41 76 / 10 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 82 57 86 43 71 / 0 5 0 5 0 Pampa TX 82 56 84 42 71 / 10 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 80 56 87 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 80 57 88 48 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson... Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hartley... Hutchinson...Moore...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter... Randall...Sherman. OK...None. && $$ 11