319 
FXUS64 KOUN 042322
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Stratus has remained in place over portions of central and
southern OK but is starting to mix out a bit based on latest
satellite imagery. This cloud cover has kept temps, on average,
about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday across SE OK. Skies will
generally begin to clear over most of the FA tonight, although
stratus may remain/return over SE OK by early AM. Persistent
southerly low level flow, some cloud cover, and moist BL conditions
will keep overnight lows on the warm side of climate. Do not
currently expect much if any fog Monday morning given stronger sfc
flow, although it can't be ruled out near CSM again. A similar 
pattern is expected for tomorrow and slightly veered increasing 
low level flow should result in warmer afternoon highs exceeding
80 F over the western half of the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

The warming trend will continue into Tuesday as ridging continues 
for one more day ahead of a longwave upper level trough digging into 
the region. Gusty Southerly winds and highs in the 70s/80s are 
expected Tuesday across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas, 
with possibly some temperatures in western north Texas reaching the 
90s. Fire weather will continue to be a concern Tuesday due to high 
winds, with elevated conditions expected in western Oklahoma and 
western north Texas with some areas of near critical in northwestern 
Oklahoma. 

No major changes have been noticed with the evolution of 
the upper-level trough. As the upper level trough crosses the 
Rockies, a strong upper level cyclone is expected to develop Tuesday 
through Wednesday with an associated surface low pressure which will 
likely stay north of Oklahoma, through Kansas and into Missouri. A 
dryline is expected to develop with the surface low pressure Tuesday 
and move into western Oklahoma, however strong capping will prevent 
any precipitation chances from occuring with the dryline. The main 
surface cold front will push through with the passing trough/surface 
low pressure late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ahead of this 
frontal passage, precipitation chances will begin to increase in 
northern, central, and southeastern Oklahoma, primarily due to 
isentropic lift from the strong moisture advection ahead of the 
front. With strong mid level lapse rates (~9 C/km) and modest shear 
present (0-6km ~ 40kts), some severe storms may develop 
primarily in northern Oklahoma with large hail and strong winds 
being the primarily concern. The cold front will quickly move 
through Oklahoma and western north Texas, with precip chances 
moving quickly to the east as well. Behind the cold front, 
enhanced to near critical fire concerns will continue in western 
Oklahoma and western north Texas with a dry airmass and gusty 
northwesterly winds behind the front.

One thing to note is that the ECMWF ensembles have trended the path 
a little farther south in Kansas, and hints at maybe some wrap 
around precipitation occuring, however confidence is still too low 
to introduce any chances of precip due to this wrap around 
precipitation. Following the front, cooler temperatures (albeit 
above normal) are expected to continue into next weekend.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021

Other than some intermittent MVFR ceilings Monday morning, and
somewhat lighter winds overnight, little change to the current
weather conditions is expected through the next 24 hours.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  78  59  78 /   0   0   0  10 
Hobart OK         54  81  58  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  56  81  60  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           53  81  58  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     56  80  60  77 /   0   0  10  20 
Durant OK         57  78  60  79 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...23