319 FXUS64 KOUN 042322 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Stratus has remained in place over portions of central and southern OK but is starting to mix out a bit based on latest satellite imagery. This cloud cover has kept temps, on average, about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday across SE OK. Skies will generally begin to clear over most of the FA tonight, although stratus may remain/return over SE OK by early AM. Persistent southerly low level flow, some cloud cover, and moist BL conditions will keep overnight lows on the warm side of climate. Do not currently expect much if any fog Monday morning given stronger sfc flow, although it can't be ruled out near CSM again. A similar pattern is expected for tomorrow and slightly veered increasing low level flow should result in warmer afternoon highs exceeding 80 F over the western half of the FA. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 The warming trend will continue into Tuesday as ridging continues for one more day ahead of a longwave upper level trough digging into the region. Gusty Southerly winds and highs in the 70s/80s are expected Tuesday across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas, with possibly some temperatures in western north Texas reaching the 90s. Fire weather will continue to be a concern Tuesday due to high winds, with elevated conditions expected in western Oklahoma and western north Texas with some areas of near critical in northwestern Oklahoma. No major changes have been noticed with the evolution of the upper-level trough. As the upper level trough crosses the Rockies, a strong upper level cyclone is expected to develop Tuesday through Wednesday with an associated surface low pressure which will likely stay north of Oklahoma, through Kansas and into Missouri. A dryline is expected to develop with the surface low pressure Tuesday and move into western Oklahoma, however strong capping will prevent any precipitation chances from occuring with the dryline. The main surface cold front will push through with the passing trough/surface low pressure late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ahead of this frontal passage, precipitation chances will begin to increase in northern, central, and southeastern Oklahoma, primarily due to isentropic lift from the strong moisture advection ahead of the front. With strong mid level lapse rates (~9 C/km) and modest shear present (0-6km ~ 40kts), some severe storms may develop primarily in northern Oklahoma with large hail and strong winds being the primarily concern. The cold front will quickly move through Oklahoma and western north Texas, with precip chances moving quickly to the east as well. Behind the cold front, enhanced to near critical fire concerns will continue in western Oklahoma and western north Texas with a dry airmass and gusty northwesterly winds behind the front. One thing to note is that the ECMWF ensembles have trended the path a little farther south in Kansas, and hints at maybe some wrap around precipitation occuring, however confidence is still too low to introduce any chances of precip due to this wrap around precipitation. Following the front, cooler temperatures (albeit above normal) are expected to continue into next weekend. Zwink && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Apr 4 2021 Other than some intermittent MVFR ceilings Monday morning, and somewhat lighter winds overnight, little change to the current weather conditions is expected through the next 24 hours. CmS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 78 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 54 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 56 81 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 53 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 56 80 60 77 / 0 0 10 20 Durant OK 57 78 60 79 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...23