269 
FXUS61 KBUF 041457
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1057 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect gradual day to day warming through much of the 
upcoming week with very little in the way of measurable 
precipitation. The next real opportunity for widespread showers will 
come late in the week when a complex weather system will move 
through the Great Lakes region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Broad ridging to our west will remain in place through Monday 
night...while its associated axis of sfc high pressure will be 
parked over our region. This will maintain generally fair weather. 
Only risk for showers will be over parts of Srn Tier late Monday and 
Monday night as shortwave will clip the region in nw flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a weak mid-level ridge across the Great Lakes, placed 
between a pair of upper level lows near Hudson Bay and off the New 
England coast. Disturbances will track along a slow moving warm 
frontal boundary which will be located to our west. Model guidance 
suggests that a few showers may clip far Western New York late 
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The better chance will be Tuesday night
since the front will be closer. Instability axis will remain well
to our south and west, thus no thunder expected. 

Otherwise it will be warm with above normal temperatures and a fair 
amount of sunshine, especially east of Rochester. Highs will be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday. Northerly component lake breeze
will keep areas along the immediate south shores of Lake Ontario
and Lake Erie a bit cooler, while this flow will prevent a lake
breeze and allow Buffalo and Watertown to warm quite nicely. 

Model dew points are likely too high/moist during the afternoon 
hours, especially east of Lake Ontario where drier mid-level air 
will be in place and available to mix down to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A closed upper level low will slowly move from the Central Plains on 
Wednesday to areas east and north by the end of the week. There 
remains differences in model guidance on the location of the closed 
low and the progression of associated frontal boundaries and waves. 
However, there is general agreement on the pattern which will 
maintain above normal temperatures during the period. Also, an 
increasing southerly flow should result in downsloping which should 
also inhibit the lake breeze and allow better warming along the 
south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

A narrow mid-level ridge will build across the area which should 
provide mainly dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for 
showers will increase after this as the system and associated 
frontal boundaries get closer. Difficult to time, but the best 
chance for showers is between Thursday night and Friday night 
although rainfall amounts should be on the light side.

All and all, it will be a pretty nice spring pattern, especially 
Wednesday and Thursday when it will be mainly dry with highs in the 
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will support VFR conditions with light winds through 
the TAF period.

Outlook...  

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A light to gentle breeze expected for the next few days, as high
pressure over the East Coast maintains fairly quiet weather through
the middle of the coming week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The region has been in a dry pattern, and this will largely continue
through the middle of the week. Although afternoon humidities will
drop below 30 percent much of this week, winds will be on the light
side for the vast majority of the time. The main exception is the
North Country with gusts of 20 mph expected Monday afternoon. It's
pre-green up across the region and fine fuels are progressively
drying. However the North Country benefits from some recent snow
melt in some areas which may help mitigate some risk.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SW
FIRE WEATHER...Apffel