269 FXUS61 KBUF 041457 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1057 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... We can expect gradual day to day warming through much of the upcoming week with very little in the way of measurable precipitation. The next real opportunity for widespread showers will come late in the week when a complex weather system will move through the Great Lakes region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Broad ridging to our west will remain in place through Monday night...while its associated axis of sfc high pressure will be parked over our region. This will maintain generally fair weather. Only risk for showers will be over parts of Srn Tier late Monday and Monday night as shortwave will clip the region in nw flow. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... There will be a weak mid-level ridge across the Great Lakes, placed between a pair of upper level lows near Hudson Bay and off the New England coast. Disturbances will track along a slow moving warm frontal boundary which will be located to our west. Model guidance suggests that a few showers may clip far Western New York late Tuesday and Tuesday night. The better chance will be Tuesday night since the front will be closer. Instability axis will remain well to our south and west, thus no thunder expected. Otherwise it will be warm with above normal temperatures and a fair amount of sunshine, especially east of Rochester. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday. Northerly component lake breeze will keep areas along the immediate south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie a bit cooler, while this flow will prevent a lake breeze and allow Buffalo and Watertown to warm quite nicely. Model dew points are likely too high/moist during the afternoon hours, especially east of Lake Ontario where drier mid-level air will be in place and available to mix down to the surface. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A closed upper level low will slowly move from the Central Plains on Wednesday to areas east and north by the end of the week. There remains differences in model guidance on the location of the closed low and the progression of associated frontal boundaries and waves. However, there is general agreement on the pattern which will maintain above normal temperatures during the period. Also, an increasing southerly flow should result in downsloping which should also inhibit the lake breeze and allow better warming along the south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. A narrow mid-level ridge will build across the area which should provide mainly dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for showers will increase after this as the system and associated frontal boundaries get closer. Difficult to time, but the best chance for showers is between Thursday night and Friday night although rainfall amounts should be on the light side. All and all, it will be a pretty nice spring pattern, especially Wednesday and Thursday when it will be mainly dry with highs in the 60s. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will support VFR conditions with light winds through the TAF period. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers. && .MARINE... A light to gentle breeze expected for the next few days, as high pressure over the East Coast maintains fairly quiet weather through the middle of the coming week. && .FIRE WEATHER... The region has been in a dry pattern, and this will largely continue through the middle of the week. Although afternoon humidities will drop below 30 percent much of this week, winds will be on the light side for the vast majority of the time. The main exception is the North Country with gusts of 20 mph expected Monday afternoon. It's pre-green up across the region and fine fuels are progressively drying. However the North Country benefits from some recent snow melt in some areas which may help mitigate some risk. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Apffel LONG TERM...Apffel AVIATION...RSH MARINE...SW FIRE WEATHER...Apffel