386 
FXUS62 KILM 040551
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
151 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal can be
expected in the upcoming week. An approaching frontal system
will bring rain chances Friday into early next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

Temperatures were in the 50s near the coast, and in the 30s and
40s inland this hour. Back Island at Holly Shelter 32 degrees, 
was the only spot reporting freezing. Temperatures will level 
off or even rise through pre-dawn, dewpoints will climb slowly,
and KLTX VWP clocking SW winds 30 knots at 1000 feet. Will re- 
visit hourly temperature curves but overall few changes needed
and minimum temperatures will likely occur prior to daybreak.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure sinks to our south tonight but not very far; just
far enough to turn winds southerly for not nearly as cold a 
night as last but with winds light enough to still support lows 
some 10 degrees below normal as we radiate. Not so on Sunday as 
a bit more advection gets to become realized at the surface; 
enough so that we warm to seasonable highs. All the while 
downsloping flow helps to keep PW values capped at a half inch; 
so dry that even diurnal cu not expected. The trend of 
seasonable temperatures will continue into Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure centered close to the northern Bahamas will 
remain sprawled across the Southeast, south of local forecast 
area, into midweek. This will maintain a light westerly flow 
with plenty of sunshine. Temps will warm as airmass modifies
and expect highs into well into the 70s to around 80, except 
cooler at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High amplitude ridge will build in Wed into early Thurs with a 
deep NW flow backing slowly around to the W-SW as ridge shifts 
east later on Thurs into Fri. A minor perturbation riding by in
the NW flow to the north may produce some clouds reaching down
into NC Wed aftn. Moisture through the column increases 
slightly with soundings showing some possible cu under decent 
subsidence inversion and a few high clouds possible on Wed. 

By Thurs low pressure moving up through the Midwest will push
a cold front east on Thurs. Moisture will increase in the mid 
to upper levels enough to create partly to mostly cloudy skies 
in places. The low levels looking fairly dry still, but expect 
Thurs to be the first day with pcp back in the forecast. Looks 
like a weak front may drop south Wed night and lift back north 
as warm front on Thurs with cold front following Thurs into
Fri. Overall expect increasing chc of pcp Thurs into Fri. High 
pressure should build in behind cold front for the weekend with 
diminishing chc of pcp. 

Temps will run well above normal with 80s many places inland of
the beaches on Wed and Thurs. Temps will remain on the warm
side Thurs through Sat but will be modified by clouds and 
shwrs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR, good visibility this TAF cycle and SKC. Light surface winds
but expect about 30 kt in the lowest few thousand feet from SW 
direction through 14-15z. Surface winds today primarily W 6-9 
knots, becoming SSW near the coast 9-13 knots, winds easing to 
SW 3-6 kt after 01-02z throughout. 

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions through the mid-week period, 
with shallow patches of early mist and fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday night:Lightening and backing winds tonight as 
high pressure sinks to our south. Seas will settle into the 
2-3ft range. This high will remain centered to our southwest 
Sunday into Sunday night keeping local flow out of the west.
An inland trough will pinch the gradient over the waters 
somewhat bringing some gustiness at time perhaps even 
occasionally to 25kt. Given that these gusts should be the 
exception and not the rule no advisory planned.

Monday through Thursday: 
Southwest flow will be the dominate flow regime through the
middle of next week. There should be a brief period of west to 
northwest flow early Mon, as weak backdoor cold front moves 
across the waters. Speeds will generally be in the 10 to 15 kt 
range through Wed. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft Mon through midweek.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
UPDATE...8
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...Colby
MARINE...MBB/RGZ