386 FXUS62 KILM 040551 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 151 AM EDT Sun Apr 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with temperatures warming to above normal can be expected in the upcoming week. An approaching frontal system will bring rain chances Friday into early next weekend. && .UPDATE... Temperatures were in the 50s near the coast, and in the 30s and 40s inland this hour. Back Island at Holly Shelter 32 degrees, was the only spot reporting freezing. Temperatures will level off or even rise through pre-dawn, dewpoints will climb slowly, and KLTX VWP clocking SW winds 30 knots at 1000 feet. Will re- visit hourly temperature curves but overall few changes needed and minimum temperatures will likely occur prior to daybreak. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure sinks to our south tonight but not very far; just far enough to turn winds southerly for not nearly as cold a night as last but with winds light enough to still support lows some 10 degrees below normal as we radiate. Not so on Sunday as a bit more advection gets to become realized at the surface; enough so that we warm to seasonable highs. All the while downsloping flow helps to keep PW values capped at a half inch; so dry that even diurnal cu not expected. The trend of seasonable temperatures will continue into Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure centered close to the northern Bahamas will remain sprawled across the Southeast, south of local forecast area, into midweek. This will maintain a light westerly flow with plenty of sunshine. Temps will warm as airmass modifies and expect highs into well into the 70s to around 80, except cooler at the beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High amplitude ridge will build in Wed into early Thurs with a deep NW flow backing slowly around to the W-SW as ridge shifts east later on Thurs into Fri. A minor perturbation riding by in the NW flow to the north may produce some clouds reaching down into NC Wed aftn. Moisture through the column increases slightly with soundings showing some possible cu under decent subsidence inversion and a few high clouds possible on Wed. By Thurs low pressure moving up through the Midwest will push a cold front east on Thurs. Moisture will increase in the mid to upper levels enough to create partly to mostly cloudy skies in places. The low levels looking fairly dry still, but expect Thurs to be the first day with pcp back in the forecast. Looks like a weak front may drop south Wed night and lift back north as warm front on Thurs with cold front following Thurs into Fri. Overall expect increasing chc of pcp Thurs into Fri. High pressure should build in behind cold front for the weekend with diminishing chc of pcp. Temps will run well above normal with 80s many places inland of the beaches on Wed and Thurs. Temps will remain on the warm side Thurs through Sat but will be modified by clouds and shwrs. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR, good visibility this TAF cycle and SKC. Light surface winds but expect about 30 kt in the lowest few thousand feet from SW direction through 14-15z. Surface winds today primarily W 6-9 knots, becoming SSW near the coast 9-13 knots, winds easing to SW 3-6 kt after 01-02z throughout. Extended Outlook...VFR conditions through the mid-week period, with shallow patches of early mist and fog. && .MARINE... Through Sunday night:Lightening and backing winds tonight as high pressure sinks to our south. Seas will settle into the 2-3ft range. This high will remain centered to our southwest Sunday into Sunday night keeping local flow out of the west. An inland trough will pinch the gradient over the waters somewhat bringing some gustiness at time perhaps even occasionally to 25kt. Given that these gusts should be the exception and not the rule no advisory planned. Monday through Thursday: Southwest flow will be the dominate flow regime through the middle of next week. There should be a brief period of west to northwest flow early Mon, as weak backdoor cold front moves across the waters. Speeds will generally be in the 10 to 15 kt range through Wed. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft Mon through midweek. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC UPDATE...8 NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...Colby MARINE...MBB/RGZ