990 
FXUS63 KMPX 040356
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1056 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Visible imagery shows clear skies across the area this afternoon.   
Weak ridging is in place with light and variable winds across most of 
the area. A surface trough over the high Plains will work east 
through Sunday, and we could see some scattered SHRA/TSRA eventually 
work into the southern portion of the area sunday night as the 850 mb
theta-e ridge tries to work into the area as warm advection 
continues. Otherwise, warm temperatures and fairly light winds will 
persist through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

Main forecast concerns in the long term are the chances for rain 
Monday night and a more widespread rain possible Tuesday night into 
Thursday. 

A shortwave will move through the upper Mississippi River valley 
early Monday morning, with the potential for scattered SHRA/TSRA that 
will depart by the afternoon. High temperatures will soar into the 
70s with a breezy southerly wind that will help return low-level 
moisture ahead of the approaching cold front. The weak frontal 
boundary will drop south across the area late Monday into Monday 
night with showers and a scattered thunderstorms possible. Model 
soundings show an increase of instability ahead of the boundary with 
CAPE values between 500 to 1500 J/Kg combined with steep 700-500mb 
lapse rates (7-8+ deg C/km) and adequate 0-6km bulk shear (~30kts). 
This environment should be enough to initiate thunderstorms along the
frontal boundary with a few isolated severe storms possible into 
Monday night. The lack of more favorable shear and forcing should 
make this an elevated storm threat capable of sporadic severe hail.

On Tuesday, the weak frontal boundary will slow and stall just south 
of the Minnesota/Iowa border. Lingering shower could persist across 
southern MN Tuesday afternoon. Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday 
(and the remainder of the forecast period) with highs near 60 and 
lows near 40. A robust low pressure approaches the area Tuesday night
providing an increase in cloud cover and precipitation. This system 
will linger over the upper Midwest for a few days due to light 
steering winds aloft. There is a solid signal in the model guidance 
for a long duration, widespread rain event across the MPX forecast 
area. Both of the 12z GEFS and EPS mean bring 1 to 2 inches of QPF 
over the 3 day period. This rain would be welcomed news as we begin 
the Spring green up. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

VFR conditions expected for the entire period with only passing high
cirrus during the day Sunday. High ceilings are possible in western
MN after 00z Sunday evening. Light/variable winds into the early
morning hours will shift to SE overnight. Winds likely to go westerly
in western MN during the day Sunday with varying wind directions
thereafter. Wind speeds to remain under 10kt throughout.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind S 10-15 kts. 
Tue...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA possible. Wind NE 10-15 kts. 
Wed...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA likely. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...   
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...JPC