990 FXUS63 KMPX 040356 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1056 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Visible imagery shows clear skies across the area this afternoon. Weak ridging is in place with light and variable winds across most of the area. A surface trough over the high Plains will work east through Sunday, and we could see some scattered SHRA/TSRA eventually work into the southern portion of the area sunday night as the 850 mb theta-e ridge tries to work into the area as warm advection continues. Otherwise, warm temperatures and fairly light winds will persist through the period. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 Main forecast concerns in the long term are the chances for rain Monday night and a more widespread rain possible Tuesday night into Thursday. A shortwave will move through the upper Mississippi River valley early Monday morning, with the potential for scattered SHRA/TSRA that will depart by the afternoon. High temperatures will soar into the 70s with a breezy southerly wind that will help return low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front. The weak frontal boundary will drop south across the area late Monday into Monday night with showers and a scattered thunderstorms possible. Model soundings show an increase of instability ahead of the boundary with CAPE values between 500 to 1500 J/Kg combined with steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8+ deg C/km) and adequate 0-6km bulk shear (~30kts). This environment should be enough to initiate thunderstorms along the frontal boundary with a few isolated severe storms possible into Monday night. The lack of more favorable shear and forcing should make this an elevated storm threat capable of sporadic severe hail. On Tuesday, the weak frontal boundary will slow and stall just south of the Minnesota/Iowa border. Lingering shower could persist across southern MN Tuesday afternoon. Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday (and the remainder of the forecast period) with highs near 60 and lows near 40. A robust low pressure approaches the area Tuesday night providing an increase in cloud cover and precipitation. This system will linger over the upper Midwest for a few days due to light steering winds aloft. There is a solid signal in the model guidance for a long duration, widespread rain event across the MPX forecast area. Both of the 12z GEFS and EPS mean bring 1 to 2 inches of QPF over the 3 day period. This rain would be welcomed news as we begin the Spring green up. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 VFR conditions expected for the entire period with only passing high cirrus during the day Sunday. High ceilings are possible in western MN after 00z Sunday evening. Light/variable winds into the early morning hours will shift to SE overnight. Winds likely to go westerly in western MN during the day Sunday with varying wind directions thereafter. Wind speeds to remain under 10kt throughout. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind S 10-15 kts. Tue...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA possible. Wind NE 10-15 kts. Wed...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA likely. Wind NE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BPH AVIATION...JPC