358 
FXUS64 KLUB 032322
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021

.AVIATION...
Upper low will continue to move through the region this evening 
with the potential for virga showers and strong downburst activity
near KLBB and KPVW. Deteriorating CIGS continue to be a concern 
overnight and toward sunrise tomorrow. Swrly winds will likely 
mitigate fog chances. Thus, will keep the mention of a stratus 
risk, but will hold off on fog mention for now.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...
Broad anticyclonic flow is in place across much of the CONUS.  A 
minor disturbance under the ridge continues to track eastward across 
New Mexico.  This feature has tracked a bit further north than 
suggested in yesterday's guidance.  WV imagery depicts an axis of 
lift just west of the TX/NM state line.  Low level moisture remains 
quite scant with expectations of efficient mixing up to H8 and 
capped above.  A layer of elevated instability is anticipated up 
around 12-15kft MSL though the scant moisture would tend to keep 
effective energy meager at best.  The primary threat with this will 
be enhanced downburst winds under virga activity which could 
generate gusts of 45-55 mph thanks to a favorable boundary layer 
environment.  With the loss of diurnal heating, the virga activity 
should rapidly wind down leading to a quiet evening.  Toward 
sunrise, indications are that the boundary layer may become nearly 
saturated.  This will increase the risk of low clouds for several 
hours.  There is an outside chance of fog though, with southwesterly 
winds and dry grounds, the risk appears too low to mention 
explicitly in the forecast at this time.

LONG TERM...
Very few changes to the long term forecast with this update. Weak 
impulse is still expected to move north of the forecast area on 
Monday morning. With southerly low level flow in place another round 
of low morning clouds will be possible. Lift within the moist layer 
appears to be weak at this time however this will need to be watched 
to determine if any light drizzle would be possible. Nearly zonal 
flow will remain in place aloft which will keep our weather quiet 
into early next week with warming temperatures. We continue to watch 
the next upper level low that will remain north of our area for 
Tuesday and Wednesday. Model timing has come into better agreement 
regarding the wind speed max aloft moving across the area Tuesday 
night. Due to this timing, it appears that surface wind speeds will 
be a bit weaker Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon than previously 
anticipated but still breezy to low end windy conditions can be
expected. Much above normal temperatures can also be expected for
Tuesday as temperatures climb to near 90 degrees. A weak front 
will move south through the area Wednesday which will help to 
knock temperatures down a bit but remain above normal in the upper
70's to mid 80's through the remainder of the week and into next 
weekend. Model and ensemble guidance continues to be in poor 
agreement with weak troughing aloft that may move into the region 
late next weekend therefore have maintained a dry forecast for 
now. 

FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level system is expected to move across the Central Plains 
late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will help to generate 
breezy to low end windy conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday 
afternoon. With the hot and dry conditions that are expected, 
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible. Behind 
this system wind speeds should be a bit lighter however, the warm 
and dry airmass will remain in place which may extend fire weather
concerns through the end of the week due to the elevated ERC 
values. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

28