358 FXUS64 KLUB 032322 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .AVIATION... Upper low will continue to move through the region this evening with the potential for virga showers and strong downburst activity near KLBB and KPVW. Deteriorating CIGS continue to be a concern overnight and toward sunrise tomorrow. Swrly winds will likely mitigate fog chances. Thus, will keep the mention of a stratus risk, but will hold off on fog mention for now. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ SHORT TERM... Broad anticyclonic flow is in place across much of the CONUS. A minor disturbance under the ridge continues to track eastward across New Mexico. This feature has tracked a bit further north than suggested in yesterday's guidance. WV imagery depicts an axis of lift just west of the TX/NM state line. Low level moisture remains quite scant with expectations of efficient mixing up to H8 and capped above. A layer of elevated instability is anticipated up around 12-15kft MSL though the scant moisture would tend to keep effective energy meager at best. The primary threat with this will be enhanced downburst winds under virga activity which could generate gusts of 45-55 mph thanks to a favorable boundary layer environment. With the loss of diurnal heating, the virga activity should rapidly wind down leading to a quiet evening. Toward sunrise, indications are that the boundary layer may become nearly saturated. This will increase the risk of low clouds for several hours. There is an outside chance of fog though, with southwesterly winds and dry grounds, the risk appears too low to mention explicitly in the forecast at this time. LONG TERM... Very few changes to the long term forecast with this update. Weak impulse is still expected to move north of the forecast area on Monday morning. With southerly low level flow in place another round of low morning clouds will be possible. Lift within the moist layer appears to be weak at this time however this will need to be watched to determine if any light drizzle would be possible. Nearly zonal flow will remain in place aloft which will keep our weather quiet into early next week with warming temperatures. We continue to watch the next upper level low that will remain north of our area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Model timing has come into better agreement regarding the wind speed max aloft moving across the area Tuesday night. Due to this timing, it appears that surface wind speeds will be a bit weaker Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon than previously anticipated but still breezy to low end windy conditions can be expected. Much above normal temperatures can also be expected for Tuesday as temperatures climb to near 90 degrees. A weak front will move south through the area Wednesday which will help to knock temperatures down a bit but remain above normal in the upper 70's to mid 80's through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. Model and ensemble guidance continues to be in poor agreement with weak troughing aloft that may move into the region late next weekend therefore have maintained a dry forecast for now. FIRE WEATHER... Upper level system is expected to move across the Central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will help to generate breezy to low end windy conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. With the hot and dry conditions that are expected, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible. Behind this system wind speeds should be a bit lighter however, the warm and dry airmass will remain in place which may extend fire weather concerns through the end of the week due to the elevated ERC values. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 28