National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product FWFAPX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: FWFAPX
Product Timestamp: 2021-03-30 19:17 UTC
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913
FNUS53 KAPX 301917
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021
...Dry Weather Thursday and Friday...
.DISCUSSION...A cold front moving through Michigan tonight will
usher in colder air, and the chance for some lake effect snow,
mainly on the west side of the state. However, the front leaves
the region Wednesday night, allowing drier air to push into
Michigan, lowering the relative humidity to 20-25% on Thursday
with north winds of 10 to 15 mph. Friday, the winds will be west
at 5-10 mph, but the minimum relative humidity will be in the
15-20% range, mainly. There is a good chance, on both days, the
relative humidity could be 5% lower than in the forecast.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-310830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....27-32.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........67-72 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of snow
showers until 1200, then slight chance of snow
showers.
Max Temperature.....33-38...except around 30 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......30 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1170).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of snow
showers.
Min Temperature.....15-20...except 22-27 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........61-66 percent.
24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1040).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of snow
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....29-34.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1050).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-310830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400Slight chance of rain showers
after 2400.
Min Temperature.....27-32...except 35-40 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........65-70 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 7 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers and snow showers.
Max Temperature.....37-42...except 28-33 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......27 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph increasing to northwest
around 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35
mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1050).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of snow
showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....17-22.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........60-65 percent.
24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (890).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of snow
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....30-35.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1360).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-310830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....27-32.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........58-63 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
snow showers.
Max Temperature.....33-38.
24 HR Trend......29 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1040).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of snow
showers.
Min Temperature.....16-21...except 25-30 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........61-66 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (920).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of snow
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....29-34.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1280).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.
$$
MIZ031>033-310830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....26-31.
24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........56-61 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
snow showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....34-39.
24 HR Trend......28 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 43-48 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (990).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of snow
showers.
Min Temperature.....17-22.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........61-66 percent.
24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (870).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of snow
showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....29-34.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........23-28 percent...except 38-43 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1270).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-310830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
317 PM EDT Tue Mar 30 2021
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) until 2400, then
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 2400Slight chance of rain showers
after 2400.
Min Temperature.....28-33.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........62-67 percent.
24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
snow showers.
Max Temperature.....38-43.
24 HR Trend......26 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (940).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....16-21.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........59-64 percent.
24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (880).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) until 1200, then
sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....30-35.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1320).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...WARMER. PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
JL