821 
FXUS62 KJAX 261127
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
727 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

Lingering low stratus and fog mainly over SGJ will dissipate in
the next couple of hours. Southerly surface winds this morning
will shift to south-southwest while increasing to 10-15 knots
around 16Z. The Atlantic sea breeze will be slower to push inland
today, with surface winds shifting to south-southeast between
19-21Z for the coastal TAF sites. Winds should be lighter this
evening and overnight. Another round of areas of low stratus and
some fog late tonight/early Saturday morning with moderate
confidence, with IFR or less likely for inland areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [346 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]...

A cold front will be oriented from the northeast U.S. southward to
the Carolinas and then southwest into central GA and srn AL and 
the extreme wrn FL panhandle this morning. As strong shortwave 
energy over the northeast and mid Atlantic states shifts quickly 
to the east-northeast later today and tonight, mid level ridging 
will build back in response and allow the frontal boundary to come
to a stall just to the north of our forecast area and keep most 
of the precipitation north of our region into tonight. Despite 
this, we may see an outflow boundary and/or pre-frontal troughing 
kick off a few showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms from
the afternoon through the late evening hours mainly north of a 
line from Homerville to Jesup. For most of southeast GA and
northeast FL though, with prevailing south to southwest breezy 
winds and very dry mid levels, we'll see hot and dry conditions 
with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. We may see record high temps
for AMG, SSI, CRG, and JAX. Current records: AMG 86 (1965), SSI 
85 (1955), CRG 86 (2002), and JAX 88 (1965). Atlantic sea breeze 
will be pinned close to the coast and provide a little relief from
the warmer temps. Areas of low stratus are expected to be present
through the mid morning hours but dense fog is not expected at 
this time. 

Tonight...looks like the front will begin lifting back to the north
overnight and appears any precip will be ending quickly. With sfc
ridge trying to build back in after the front lifts northward, 
the pressure gradient should be weaker than this morning and thus low
level flow is going to be much weaker and so we expect low 
stratus and more fog potential. We can't rule out the need for a 
dense fog advisory late tonight into Saturday morning given this 
setup. Best chance of an advisory will be across the inland areas 
from Gainesville FL to Alma GA. Min temps in the lower to mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Monday]...

Region will be between high pressure to the east and a west to east
oriented frontal boundary to the north Saturday. This will provide 
for a dry day with the southerly flow pushing temperatures well 
above seasonal averages. The east coast and gulf sea breezes will 
push well inland, helping to cool areas west of Gainesville, and 
east of Jacksonville. 

The high will build more to the southeast Saturday night, as the 
frontal zone pushes further to the north. Lows will be well above 
normal with fog possible. 

The high will sink further to the southeast Sunday, as a cold front 
reaches SE GA late in the day. 

Long term models then diverge in handling of the frontal system as 
it moves through Sunday night into Monday. At this point, will keep
precipitation chances on the low side, with temperatures trending 
more seasonal.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

High pressure is forecast to build to the north northeast Monday 
night into Tuesday, with a coastal trough developing. Long range 
models diverge on strength of coastal trough and northeast flow 
pattern. At this point expect an unsettled period with this feature,
with an elevated onshore flow. 

High pressure will move more toward the east Tuesday night into 
Wednesday, bringing warmer and more moist air into region. 

A cold front will move southeast across the area Wednesday night 
into Thursday, bringing the potential for an organized line of 
storms. 

Temperatures will trend above normal through this period.


.MARINE...
Sfc ridge will dominate the region the through Sunday with
prevailing southerly winds of about 10-15 kt, occasionally
sustained 15 kt and gusty around the 10-20 nm range through about
60 nm out. For most part, winds look to stay just shy of 15-20 kt
winds (SCEC headline) but may briefly get there at times. Seas 
initially a little too high today on the NWPS run so just tweaked
down slightly. A cold front is forecast to move into the waters 
late Sunday night and push south of the area Monday morning, with 
onshore increasing. Small craft advisory possible Monday and 
Tuesday due to the high pressure briefly building north of the 
front increasing winds and seas to the area. The front may lift 
back north as a warm front Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk due to a mix of easterly wind chop and
swells. Fairly similar risk for the weekend is expected at this
time.


.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersions are forecast for today. RH values will remain 
above critical values today and Saturday.


.HYDROLOGY...

Minor flooding will continue through the weekend along lower
portions of the Satilla River. Minor flooding is expected to
subside for lower portions of the Santa Fe River through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  87  63  89  64  88 /  20  10   0   0  10 
SSI  84  65  82  65  84 /  10   0   0   0   0 
JAX  90  64  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SGJ  86  65  83  65  85 /  10  10   0   0   0 
GNV  89  62  90  63  87 /   0  10   0   0   0 
OCF  90  63  90  64  89 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&