821 FXUS62 KJAX 261127 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 727 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Saturday] Lingering low stratus and fog mainly over SGJ will dissipate in the next couple of hours. Southerly surface winds this morning will shift to south-southwest while increasing to 10-15 knots around 16Z. The Atlantic sea breeze will be slower to push inland today, with surface winds shifting to south-southeast between 19-21Z for the coastal TAF sites. Winds should be lighter this evening and overnight. Another round of areas of low stratus and some fog late tonight/early Saturday morning with moderate confidence, with IFR or less likely for inland areas. && .PREV DISCUSSION [346 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Today Through Tonight]... A cold front will be oriented from the northeast U.S. southward to the Carolinas and then southwest into central GA and srn AL and the extreme wrn FL panhandle this morning. As strong shortwave energy over the northeast and mid Atlantic states shifts quickly to the east-northeast later today and tonight, mid level ridging will build back in response and allow the frontal boundary to come to a stall just to the north of our forecast area and keep most of the precipitation north of our region into tonight. Despite this, we may see an outflow boundary and/or pre-frontal troughing kick off a few showers and possibly a couple of thunderstorms from the afternoon through the late evening hours mainly north of a line from Homerville to Jesup. For most of southeast GA and northeast FL though, with prevailing south to southwest breezy winds and very dry mid levels, we'll see hot and dry conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. We may see record high temps for AMG, SSI, CRG, and JAX. Current records: AMG 86 (1965), SSI 85 (1955), CRG 86 (2002), and JAX 88 (1965). Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned close to the coast and provide a little relief from the warmer temps. Areas of low stratus are expected to be present through the mid morning hours but dense fog is not expected at this time. Tonight...looks like the front will begin lifting back to the north overnight and appears any precip will be ending quickly. With sfc ridge trying to build back in after the front lifts northward, the pressure gradient should be weaker than this morning and thus low level flow is going to be much weaker and so we expect low stratus and more fog potential. We can't rule out the need for a dense fog advisory late tonight into Saturday morning given this setup. Best chance of an advisory will be across the inland areas from Gainesville FL to Alma GA. Min temps in the lower to mid 60s. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Monday]... Region will be between high pressure to the east and a west to east oriented frontal boundary to the north Saturday. This will provide for a dry day with the southerly flow pushing temperatures well above seasonal averages. The east coast and gulf sea breezes will push well inland, helping to cool areas west of Gainesville, and east of Jacksonville. The high will build more to the southeast Saturday night, as the frontal zone pushes further to the north. Lows will be well above normal with fog possible. The high will sink further to the southeast Sunday, as a cold front reaches SE GA late in the day. Long term models then diverge in handling of the frontal system as it moves through Sunday night into Monday. At this point, will keep precipitation chances on the low side, with temperatures trending more seasonal. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... High pressure is forecast to build to the north northeast Monday night into Tuesday, with a coastal trough developing. Long range models diverge on strength of coastal trough and northeast flow pattern. At this point expect an unsettled period with this feature, with an elevated onshore flow. High pressure will move more toward the east Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing warmer and more moist air into region. A cold front will move southeast across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the potential for an organized line of storms. Temperatures will trend above normal through this period. .MARINE... Sfc ridge will dominate the region the through Sunday with prevailing southerly winds of about 10-15 kt, occasionally sustained 15 kt and gusty around the 10-20 nm range through about 60 nm out. For most part, winds look to stay just shy of 15-20 kt winds (SCEC headline) but may briefly get there at times. Seas initially a little too high today on the NWPS run so just tweaked down slightly. A cold front is forecast to move into the waters late Sunday night and push south of the area Monday morning, with onshore increasing. Small craft advisory possible Monday and Tuesday due to the high pressure briefly building north of the front increasing winds and seas to the area. The front may lift back north as a warm front Tuesday-Wednesday. Rip Currents: Moderate risk due to a mix of easterly wind chop and swells. Fairly similar risk for the weekend is expected at this time. .FIRE WEATHER... High dispersions are forecast for today. RH values will remain above critical values today and Saturday. .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue through the weekend along lower portions of the Satilla River. Minor flooding is expected to subside for lower portions of the Santa Fe River through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 87 63 89 64 88 / 20 10 0 0 10 SSI 84 65 82 65 84 / 10 0 0 0 0 JAX 90 64 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 86 65 83 65 85 / 10 10 0 0 0 GNV 89 62 90 63 87 / 0 10 0 0 0 OCF 90 63 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&