044 
FXUS63 KAPX 211700
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
100 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over New
England late this morning. Meanwhile...upstream cold front is
slowly moving out of the Northern Plains toward the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Michigan remains between these two system...
but still firmly under the influence of strong subsidence and dry
air thru the column. Our beautiful blue skies will hold on for one
more day...with bright sunny skies expected for your Sunday
afternoon. Ongoing WAA will boost afternoon highs into the lower
60s across much of Northern Lower Michigan...and into the mid to
upper 50s for Eastern Upper Michigan.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Impactful weather: None. 

Pattern synopsis and forecast: 

Not much change in the weather, with broad and shallow mid level 
ridging over the eastern Great Lakes. At the sfc, high pressure was 
starting to move out into the Atlantic, while low pressure and a 
cold front were moving into central Canada and the Plains, and was 
resulting in light reflectivities. The air mass over nrn Michigan is 
still bone dry with PWATs around 0.10". Skies were clear still and no 
precipitation was anywhere in sight.

The mid level ridging shove into the NE conus through tonight, while 
the upstream low pressure and cold front track into Ontario and Lake 
Superior, down through WI and midwest. Nrn Michigan will find itself 
in a tighter pressure gradient with some gustiness expected today, 
but nothing too windy. The deep dry air will remain in place with no 
chance of precipitation. Later today and especially tonight though, 
fcst soundings are showing increasing high clouds/cirrus. The first 
clouds in a couple of days. 

Highs today will range from the middle 50s in eastern upper to the 
lower half of the 60s in nrn lower. Cooler near the lake shores. 
Lows tonight will be in the middle 30s to lower 40s.   

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021

...Rain Monday or Tuesday? It Depends on where You Are... 

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts...

Monday, The rain is expected to move into E Upper for a time, before 
falling apart and moving back out to the north and west, a bit. GFS 
has the rain into NW Lower, but it doesn't get any further than 
that. The rest of N Lower looks to remain dry through the night. The 
fire issues may not be done, since N Lower may remain dry through 
most of the day. The concern will be if the 30's% rh for the day is 
too high. There is a chance that the min rh for the day, especially 
south of M-32 and east of I-75, could be sub 30%, but not much more 
than that. Tuesday is when the precipitation will move in, at least 
with the GFS. The ECMWF keeps it west of the region until Tuesday 
night. The ECMWF idea would keep the RH for the afternoon lower than 
the upper 30s% for the afternoon. The GFS would make the around 40% 
more likely with the scattered precipitation. Really, Not much 
change with the current models over last night's runs. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...

Extended (Wednesday through Saturday)...Wednesday has a chance for 
rain as the system moves through. Looks like the rain would 
continue into the evening, and then the clearing line would move 
through after 06z/Thu, with some chances for rain in E Upper. 
Thursday, both of the models now have another system move up out of 
the south and into the lower peninsula during the day, which brings 
more rain. However, now the GFS is faster and cooler. The ECMWF has 
a quick hitting, very developed sfc and 500 mb low moving into the 
region by 06z/Fri. The GFS makes it look like there could be a mix 
while the ECMWF is warm enough for all rain. Friday, The gfs has the 
rain/snow leaving while the ECMWF is rain all day as the sfc low 
moves into SW Ontario. Friday night begins to dry out. Saturday, The 
flow begins to flatten out a bit, and there is a pause in the 
weather as a trough in the Plains begins to deepen, setting up 
things for Sunday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Strong high pressure will continue to exit eastward away from
Michigan tonight as a cold front moves into the Great Lakes
region. This front will reach Eastern Upper Michigan and our Lake
Michigan shoreline by Monday afternoon...initially resulting in 
increasing clouds across Northern Lower Michigan thru 18Z Monday.
VFR conditions will continue thru Monday afternoon despite
increasing clouds. LLWS will develop later this evening and will
continue thru Monday morning as winds strengthen ahead of this 
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021

Sfc high pressure pushes into the Atlantic today, while an upstream 
low pressure and cold front track into Ontario and Lake Superior 
tonight, then try to move into nrn Michigan Monday. A tighter 
pressure gradient is expected today, with advisory level southerly 
winds expected for Whitefish Bay and Lake Michigan into Monday 
morning, this is despite a bit more warm advection and increased 
overlake stability. It's possible for a few showers to sneak into 
eastern upper and nrn Lake Michigan late tonight into Monday
night. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Monday for LHZ348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...SMD