044 FXUS63 KAPX 211700 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over New England late this morning. Meanwhile...upstream cold front is slowly moving out of the Northern Plains toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. Michigan remains between these two system... but still firmly under the influence of strong subsidence and dry air thru the column. Our beautiful blue skies will hold on for one more day...with bright sunny skies expected for your Sunday afternoon. Ongoing WAA will boost afternoon highs into the lower 60s across much of Northern Lower Michigan...and into the mid to upper 50s for Eastern Upper Michigan. && .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Impactful weather: None. Pattern synopsis and forecast: Not much change in the weather, with broad and shallow mid level ridging over the eastern Great Lakes. At the sfc, high pressure was starting to move out into the Atlantic, while low pressure and a cold front were moving into central Canada and the Plains, and was resulting in light reflectivities. The air mass over nrn Michigan is still bone dry with PWATs around 0.10". Skies were clear still and no precipitation was anywhere in sight. The mid level ridging shove into the NE conus through tonight, while the upstream low pressure and cold front track into Ontario and Lake Superior, down through WI and midwest. Nrn Michigan will find itself in a tighter pressure gradient with some gustiness expected today, but nothing too windy. The deep dry air will remain in place with no chance of precipitation. Later today and especially tonight though, fcst soundings are showing increasing high clouds/cirrus. The first clouds in a couple of days. Highs today will range from the middle 50s in eastern upper to the lower half of the 60s in nrn lower. Cooler near the lake shores. Lows tonight will be in the middle 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 ...Rain Monday or Tuesday? It Depends on where You Are... High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts... Monday, The rain is expected to move into E Upper for a time, before falling apart and moving back out to the north and west, a bit. GFS has the rain into NW Lower, but it doesn't get any further than that. The rest of N Lower looks to remain dry through the night. The fire issues may not be done, since N Lower may remain dry through most of the day. The concern will be if the 30's% rh for the day is too high. There is a chance that the min rh for the day, especially south of M-32 and east of I-75, could be sub 30%, but not much more than that. Tuesday is when the precipitation will move in, at least with the GFS. The ECMWF keeps it west of the region until Tuesday night. The ECMWF idea would keep the RH for the afternoon lower than the upper 30s% for the afternoon. The GFS would make the around 40% more likely with the scattered precipitation. Really, Not much change with the current models over last night's runs. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 High Impact Weather Potential... Extended (Wednesday through Saturday)...Wednesday has a chance for rain as the system moves through. Looks like the rain would continue into the evening, and then the clearing line would move through after 06z/Thu, with some chances for rain in E Upper. Thursday, both of the models now have another system move up out of the south and into the lower peninsula during the day, which brings more rain. However, now the GFS is faster and cooler. The ECMWF has a quick hitting, very developed sfc and 500 mb low moving into the region by 06z/Fri. The GFS makes it look like there could be a mix while the ECMWF is warm enough for all rain. Friday, The gfs has the rain/snow leaving while the ECMWF is rain all day as the sfc low moves into SW Ontario. Friday night begins to dry out. Saturday, The flow begins to flatten out a bit, and there is a pause in the weather as a trough in the Plains begins to deepen, setting up things for Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Strong high pressure will continue to exit eastward away from Michigan tonight as a cold front moves into the Great Lakes region. This front will reach Eastern Upper Michigan and our Lake Michigan shoreline by Monday afternoon...initially resulting in increasing clouds across Northern Lower Michigan thru 18Z Monday. VFR conditions will continue thru Monday afternoon despite increasing clouds. LLWS will develop later this evening and will continue thru Monday morning as winds strengthen ahead of this front. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Mar 21 2021 Sfc high pressure pushes into the Atlantic today, while an upstream low pressure and cold front track into Ontario and Lake Superior tonight, then try to move into nrn Michigan Monday. A tighter pressure gradient is expected today, with advisory level southerly winds expected for Whitefish Bay and Lake Michigan into Monday morning, this is despite a bit more warm advection and increased overlake stability. It's possible for a few showers to sneak into eastern upper and nrn Lake Michigan late tonight into Monday night. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Monday for LHZ348. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321. && $$ UPDATE...MR NEAR TERM...SMD SHORT TERM...JL LONG TERM...JL AVIATION...MR MARINE...SMD