567 
FXUS64 KMAF 091720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1120 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. High clouds
with gusty southerly winds will prevail today. As in previous
days, gusts are expected to die out by sunset while winds will
remain elevated at KMAF/KFST overnight. Models are indicating some
low clouds moving in around 12z potentially reaching KMAF,
although there is very high uncertainty so will leave out of the 
TAFs and amend as needed.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

Southerly surface flow across much of the region has resulted in a 
noticeable increase in moisture across the area early this 
morning along with noticeably warmer temperatures, still in the 
50s to around 60 degrees for most as of 330 AM CST. A somewhat 
active week is ahead as a significant warm up is underway, with 
temperatures this afternoon expected to be several degrees warmer 
than yesterday for most with highs in the middle 70s to middle 
80s, and lower 90s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley. 
Breezy conditions will also develop this afternoon, with westerly 
winds across western portions of the area expected to result in 
increasing fire weather concerns this afternoon into early 
evening. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for 
additional details.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the forecast 
beneath continued southwesterly flow aloft and downslope warming
at the surface. Highs will climb into the 80s and lower 90s for 
most, with the first 100 degree day of the calendar year possible 
for Rio Grande Village. Have maintained the High Wind Watch for 
the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains from Wednesday morning 
through late Wednesday evening, where westerly to southwesterly  
winds could gust up to around 65 mph. Some of these stronger winds
may translate across the immediately adjacent plains, however, 
wind speeds at this time through Eddy and Culberson counties look 
to remain just below Advisory criteria. Warm and breezy/windy 
conditions will continue into Thursday, though temperatures will 
edge down somewhat, with highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s for
most, and 90s confined to the Rio Grande Valley. The persistent 
warm, dry, and windy conditions will also yield continued fire 
weather concerns through midweek. 

In addition to the well above normal temperatures, southerly to 
southeasterly flow across the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau 
will result in the formation of a dryline the next few days, with 
the dryline expected to embark on its nocturnal retreat each
night. Currently, Thursday night and particularly Friday night 
look best as far as thunderstorm potential, mainly across the 
Permian Basin, and possibly across the Trans Pecos. Midlevel lapse
rates of 7-8 C/km Thursday night, and around 7 C/km Friday night 
will yield potential for storms that develop to become strong, 
with gusty winds and hail possible. Persistent southwesterly flow 
aloft as well as low-level moisture return will produce PWATs 
around 0.50-0.75" Thursday night, and up to around 1.00" Friday 
night, resulting in the potential for locally heavy rainfall where
storms develop. 

A potent upper trough will move across the Four Corners Region 
Friday night into Saturday, then progress northeastward into the 
Central Plains Sunday night. This trough will result in another 
round of breezy to windy conditions across the region from 
Saturday through Monday, with a prolonged period of high winds 
possible across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. An 
associated Pacific front is still progged to sweep across the area 
during the day on Saturday, with any lingering precipitation 
activity Saturday expected to be shunted eastward by Saturday 
night. Cooler conditions are expected in the wake of this front 
Saturday as temperatures drop to near and just below normal, and 
cooler yet on Sunday when highs are expected to be in the upper 
50s to middle 60s for most. Thereafter, temperatures rebound back 
into the middle 60s to middle 70s Monday and Tuesday, with no 
additional precipitation expected under quasizonal flow aloft.

FIRE WEATHER...

The 850 mb LLTR is forecast to set up today from south central NM
up through the panhandles, w/a weak mid-level jet intersecting 
the LLTR in NE NM/panhandles. Unseasonably warm temps will yield 
critical RH from Eddy/Culberson Counties westward, coincident 
w/critical 20 ft winds in the Guadalupes. However, ERCs are either
below or at 50th percentile area wide, and w/max RFTIs in the 
Guadalupes of 4-5, a small area of elevated fire wx is anticipated
this afternoon.

Wednesday, fire wx concerns increase a little as the LLTR creeps 
farther east, courtesy of strengthening 20ft SW flow in response
to leeside troughing on the Front Range. The mid-level jet 
strengthens, but the core remains to the north of our area. 
Widespread RFTIs of 5-6 develop east as well, covering most of SE 
NM and areas south to the Davis Mtns. If ERCs remain 50th 
percentile or less, this would be a marginal RFW event at best. 
Much will depend on how things dry out today, but for now, the 
scenario doesn't warrant a watch. 

Cooler temperatures/weakening LLTR Thursday/Friday will lessen
fire wx  concerns, but again, the situation each day will depend 
on the preceding 24 hours or so each day. However, elevated fire 
wx will be likely SE NM through then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  56  84  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       85  50  84  44 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         76  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  84  56  90  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 77  51  74  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          77  48  80  42 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          79  44  83  44 /   0  10   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           76  54  84  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         76  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           83  51  88  49 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening 
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening 
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and 
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

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