567 FXUS64 KMAF 091720 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1120 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021 .DISCUSSION... Please see 18z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. High clouds with gusty southerly winds will prevail today. As in previous days, gusts are expected to die out by sunset while winds will remain elevated at KMAF/KFST overnight. Models are indicating some low clouds moving in around 12z potentially reaching KMAF, although there is very high uncertainty so will leave out of the TAFs and amend as needed. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CST Tue Mar 9 2021/ DISCUSSION... Southerly surface flow across much of the region has resulted in a noticeable increase in moisture across the area early this morning along with noticeably warmer temperatures, still in the 50s to around 60 degrees for most as of 330 AM CST. A somewhat active week is ahead as a significant warm up is underway, with temperatures this afternoon expected to be several degrees warmer than yesterday for most with highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s, and lower 90s through portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy conditions will also develop this afternoon, with westerly winds across western portions of the area expected to result in increasing fire weather concerns this afternoon into early evening. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details. Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the forecast beneath continued southwesterly flow aloft and downslope warming at the surface. Highs will climb into the 80s and lower 90s for most, with the first 100 degree day of the calendar year possible for Rio Grande Village. Have maintained the High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday evening, where westerly to southwesterly winds could gust up to around 65 mph. Some of these stronger winds may translate across the immediately adjacent plains, however, wind speeds at this time through Eddy and Culberson counties look to remain just below Advisory criteria. Warm and breezy/windy conditions will continue into Thursday, though temperatures will edge down somewhat, with highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s for most, and 90s confined to the Rio Grande Valley. The persistent warm, dry, and windy conditions will also yield continued fire weather concerns through midweek. In addition to the well above normal temperatures, southerly to southeasterly flow across the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau will result in the formation of a dryline the next few days, with the dryline expected to embark on its nocturnal retreat each night. Currently, Thursday night and particularly Friday night look best as far as thunderstorm potential, mainly across the Permian Basin, and possibly across the Trans Pecos. Midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km Thursday night, and around 7 C/km Friday night will yield potential for storms that develop to become strong, with gusty winds and hail possible. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft as well as low-level moisture return will produce PWATs around 0.50-0.75" Thursday night, and up to around 1.00" Friday night, resulting in the potential for locally heavy rainfall where storms develop. A potent upper trough will move across the Four Corners Region Friday night into Saturday, then progress northeastward into the Central Plains Sunday night. This trough will result in another round of breezy to windy conditions across the region from Saturday through Monday, with a prolonged period of high winds possible across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. An associated Pacific front is still progged to sweep across the area during the day on Saturday, with any lingering precipitation activity Saturday expected to be shunted eastward by Saturday night. Cooler conditions are expected in the wake of this front Saturday as temperatures drop to near and just below normal, and cooler yet on Sunday when highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to middle 60s for most. Thereafter, temperatures rebound back into the middle 60s to middle 70s Monday and Tuesday, with no additional precipitation expected under quasizonal flow aloft. FIRE WEATHER... The 850 mb LLTR is forecast to set up today from south central NM up through the panhandles, w/a weak mid-level jet intersecting the LLTR in NE NM/panhandles. Unseasonably warm temps will yield critical RH from Eddy/Culberson Counties westward, coincident w/critical 20 ft winds in the Guadalupes. However, ERCs are either below or at 50th percentile area wide, and w/max RFTIs in the Guadalupes of 4-5, a small area of elevated fire wx is anticipated this afternoon. Wednesday, fire wx concerns increase a little as the LLTR creeps farther east, courtesy of strengthening 20ft SW flow in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range. The mid-level jet strengthens, but the core remains to the north of our area. Widespread RFTIs of 5-6 develop east as well, covering most of SE NM and areas south to the Davis Mtns. If ERCs remain 50th percentile or less, this would be a marginal RFW event at best. Much will depend on how things dry out today, but for now, the scenario doesn't warrant a watch. Cooler temperatures/weakening LLTR Thursday/Friday will lessen fire wx concerns, but again, the situation each day will depend on the preceding 24 hours or so each day. However, elevated fire wx will be likely SE NM through then. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 56 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 85 50 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 76 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 84 56 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 51 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 77 48 80 42 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 79 44 83 44 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 76 53 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 83 51 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. && $$ 88/72