386 
FXUS62 KCHS 032002
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
302 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through Friday before low pressure
brushes the area during the weekend. High pressure will return
again early next week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GOES-E visible data show skies are slowly, but steadily clearing
across the region as low pressure moves farther away from the
region. Skies will continue to clear out as high pressure builds
south. Expect a dry and cold night to prevail with lows ranging
from the upper 30 well inland to the upper 40s/near 50 at the
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday and Friday: Conditions will remain dry, but notably warmer 
on Thursday due to a downsloping wind persisting across the region, 
a full day of sun in place to promote strong sfc heating, and mid-
lvl ridging nudging into the area from the west late. Thursday 
afternoon temps should range in the mid/upper 60s with even a few 
locations south of I-16 in southeast Georgia touching 70 degrees. 
Overnight lows will be slightly more mild through much of Thursday 
night, dipping into the low/mid 40s. However, a dry backdoor cold 
front should arrive from the north before daybreak Friday, 
potentially reducing temps to the upper 30s across the Tri-County 
area away from the immediate coast. The front will be dry, but 
continued cold air advection into the area along with some 
increasing cloud cover mid-late Friday afternoon will likely limit 
overall high temps to the upper 50s/lower 60s across southeast South 
Carolina and low/mid 60s across southeast Georgia.

Saturday: Latest guidance suggests a fairly weak low pressure system 
traversing the Southeast United States, eventually shifting across 
the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Central Florida before shifting 
offshore across the Atlantic late in the day. Given the track of the 
system, moisture will be limited across much of the area, but 
sufficient across southeast Georgia for few to scattered showers to 
develop while greatest forcing associated with a h5 shortwave 
traverses the area aloft. High temps should be limited a few degrees 
with clouds and showers in place, peaking only in the mid/upper 50s 
across most areas with the exception of temps around 60 degrees near 
the Altamaha River in.  

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence this period as models are in decent agreement 
keeping high pressure in control. The main forecast challenge will 
revolve around temperatures, which look to be near or below normal 
until Wednesday. Still possible to see some frost and/or freezing 
temperatures inland each morning through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR cigs will quickly give way to VFR this afternoon which will
persist for the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail at both 
CHS and SAV terminals through Friday night. Flight restrictions 
are possible, mainly at the SAV terminal on Saturday while a 
weak low pressure system passes just south of the region and 
produces a few showers. VFR conditions will then prevail early 
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds and seas will continue to diminish tonight as
high pressure moves south and the pressure gradient relaxes.
Winds and seas appear to have diminished enough over the
nearshore waters from Edisto Beach south to drop the Small Craft
Advisory there, including Charleston Harbor. Lingering 6 ft seas
will linger over the Charleston nearshore and Georgia offshore
waters into this evening and the ending time of the Small Craft 
Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Speeds will settle down 
into the 10-15 kt range with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft nearshore 
waters with 4-5 ft Georgia offshore waters.

Thursday through Monday: Dry high pressure will prevail across local 
waters Thursday with winds at or below 15 kt from north-northwest 
and seas no higher than 2-4 ft. A backdoor cold front is then 
expected to shift across the area near daybreak Friday, supporting a 
surge of winds in its wake. North-northeast winds could gust around 
20 kt Friday morning into early afternoon, before the pressure 
gradient and cold air advection weaken later in the day. A weak low 
pressure system will then track just south of local waters Saturday, 
shifting off the Florida coast and across the western Atlantic. The 
pressure gradient will become enhanced during this process, favoring 
wind gusts around 25 kt across much of the waters late weekend into 
early next week while seas build up to 5-7 ft, highest across 
offshore Georgia waters. Small Craft Advisories could be needed 
Saturday and Sunday, before high pressure becomes centered across 
the area Monday. 

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ374.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350.

&&

$$