386 FXUS62 KCHS 032002 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 302 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through Friday before low pressure brushes the area during the weekend. High pressure will return again early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... GOES-E visible data show skies are slowly, but steadily clearing across the region as low pressure moves farther away from the region. Skies will continue to clear out as high pressure builds south. Expect a dry and cold night to prevail with lows ranging from the upper 30 well inland to the upper 40s/near 50 at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday and Friday: Conditions will remain dry, but notably warmer on Thursday due to a downsloping wind persisting across the region, a full day of sun in place to promote strong sfc heating, and mid- lvl ridging nudging into the area from the west late. Thursday afternoon temps should range in the mid/upper 60s with even a few locations south of I-16 in southeast Georgia touching 70 degrees. Overnight lows will be slightly more mild through much of Thursday night, dipping into the low/mid 40s. However, a dry backdoor cold front should arrive from the north before daybreak Friday, potentially reducing temps to the upper 30s across the Tri-County area away from the immediate coast. The front will be dry, but continued cold air advection into the area along with some increasing cloud cover mid-late Friday afternoon will likely limit overall high temps to the upper 50s/lower 60s across southeast South Carolina and low/mid 60s across southeast Georgia. Saturday: Latest guidance suggests a fairly weak low pressure system traversing the Southeast United States, eventually shifting across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and Central Florida before shifting offshore across the Atlantic late in the day. Given the track of the system, moisture will be limited across much of the area, but sufficient across southeast Georgia for few to scattered showers to develop while greatest forcing associated with a h5 shortwave traverses the area aloft. High temps should be limited a few degrees with clouds and showers in place, peaking only in the mid/upper 50s across most areas with the exception of temps around 60 degrees near the Altamaha River in. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence this period as models are in decent agreement keeping high pressure in control. The main forecast challenge will revolve around temperatures, which look to be near or below normal until Wednesday. Still possible to see some frost and/or freezing temperatures inland each morning through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR cigs will quickly give way to VFR this afternoon which will persist for the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail at both CHS and SAV terminals through Friday night. Flight restrictions are possible, mainly at the SAV terminal on Saturday while a weak low pressure system passes just south of the region and produces a few showers. VFR conditions will then prevail early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds and seas will continue to diminish tonight as high pressure moves south and the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds and seas appear to have diminished enough over the nearshore waters from Edisto Beach south to drop the Small Craft Advisory there, including Charleston Harbor. Lingering 6 ft seas will linger over the Charleston nearshore and Georgia offshore waters into this evening and the ending time of the Small Craft Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Speeds will settle down into the 10-15 kt range with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft nearshore waters with 4-5 ft Georgia offshore waters. Thursday through Monday: Dry high pressure will prevail across local waters Thursday with winds at or below 15 kt from north-northwest and seas no higher than 2-4 ft. A backdoor cold front is then expected to shift across the area near daybreak Friday, supporting a surge of winds in its wake. North-northeast winds could gust around 20 kt Friday morning into early afternoon, before the pressure gradient and cold air advection weaken later in the day. A weak low pressure system will then track just south of local waters Saturday, shifting off the Florida coast and across the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient will become enhanced during this process, favoring wind gusts around 25 kt across much of the waters late weekend into early next week while seas build up to 5-7 ft, highest across offshore Georgia waters. Small Craft Advisories could be needed Saturday and Sunday, before high pressure becomes centered across the area Monday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ374. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350. && $$