907 
FXUS62 KJAX 270108
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
808 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Mostly clear skies with light south to southeast winds across the
area this evening. Patchy fog will be possible by dawn Saturday 
especially near the east coast of ne Fl as moisture increases from
the south. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. Near 
record high temperatures expected this weekend with highs reaching
the low/mid 80s inland with dry conditions persisting. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [640 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Dry weather will continue for the rest of the day and overnight as
the weakening frontal boundary north of the region continues to
recede. Patchy fog developments may develop overnight and into 
early tomorrow morning for inland southeast Georgia and areas west
of I-75. High temperatures for today will be in the lower to mid 
80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 50s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Near record high temperatures are anticipated for the weekend as
warm southwesterly prevailing flow, channeling between high
pressure to the east and a gradually approaching frontal boundary
situated to the west and north of Georgia, continues to move
through the forecast area. Morning fog will disperse over inland
areas on Saturday, with a potential for sea fog touching upon the
shoreline throughout the day. Chances for dense fog will become
much higher Saturday night and into Sunday morning with models
showing fog developments throughout the area with densest
formations occurring in areas west of I-75 and along the
coastline. High temperatures for the weekend are forecasted to
reach up into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temps in the
60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The cold front from out of the north will press down into the
forecast area at the beginning of next week with the frontal
boundary stalling briefly in the vicinity of the Georgia-Florida
border by midweek. Forecast models are currently in disagreement
as to whether the frontal boundary will retreat from the area by
the end of the week or push further southward, with high pressure
conditions settling in for next weekend. The placement of the
frontal boundary next week will result in active weather with
showers and potential thunderstorms building throughout the region
with the highest likelihood of convective developments occurring
over southeast Georgia and adjacent counties of northeast Florida.
Temperatures for areas ahead of the frontal boundary are expected
to be above average during this period.


.AVIATION...[Through 00Z Sunday]
Lower fog chances tonight as models show little development across
the area likely due to increased southerly winds right above the 
surface. Will continue with previous forecast of MVFR vsbys early 
Saturday morning as light fog may briefly form. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.


.MARINE...

The weak frontal boundary situated near the Georgia waters will 
continue to lift northward as a warm front today with high 
pressure moving eastward off Florida's Atlantic coast and
extending its axis westward across the Florida peninsula this 
weekend. Southerly winds will prevail across our waters this 
weekend, and sea fog could develop by Sunday and Sunday night. 
High pressure will then dive southeastward from the Upper Midwest 
on Monday towards the eastern Great Lakes region by Monday night, 
which will push a cold front southward through the Georgia waters 
by late Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers and a
few thunderstorms. High pressure will then reach the Mid- 
Atlantic coast by Tuesday afternoon, and the frontal boundary will
stall over the northeast Florida waters. Northeasterly winds will
gradually strengthen on Tuesday, with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms possible.

Rip Currents: Low Risk Today
              Moderate Risk this Weekend


.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure lies to our east, with a low pressure system to our 
west that will lift northeastward into the Tennessee Valley
through Saturday night. Light transport winds will be in place
across NE FL, with higher afternoon transport winds in SE GA,
particularly near the Altamaha River. This will mean low-end
dispersions in NE FL (around 25) and high dispersions (over 75)
near the Altamaha River both today and tomorrow. RH values will be
lowest where winds will also be lowest, preventing Red Flag 
conditions from developing. Chances for showers and thunderstorms 
will return Monday when a weakening front slides south toward SE 
GA.


.HYDROLOGY...

Major River Flooding: Ongoing along Alapaha River near the 
Statenville gauge. Current trends indicate water level slowly 
receding to moderate flood status in the next 1-2 days.

Moderate River Flooding: Ongoing along the lower Altamaha River 
near the Everett City gauge and expected to continue into 
Saturday.

Minor River Flooding: Ongoing along most of the St. Marys, 
Satilla, Altamaha and Santa Fe Rivers. The lower Santa Fe will 
continue to rise through the end of the week as flow becomes 
blocked by rising waters near its confluence with the lower 
Suwannee River, with moderate flooding forecast to begin along the
lower Santa Fe River near Three Rivers Estates by late Saturday 
as minor flooding begins along lower portions of the Suwannee 
River from the gauge near Luraville southward to around the gauge 
near Rock Bluff.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  54  84  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SSI  57  72  61  76  62 /   0   0   0   0  10 
JAX  57  84  63  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SGJ  59  79  63  80  63 /   0   0   0   0  10 
GNV  56  86  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OCF  58  86  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&