907 FXUS62 KJAX 270108 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 808 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021 .UPDATE... Mostly clear skies with light south to southeast winds across the area this evening. Patchy fog will be possible by dawn Saturday especially near the east coast of ne Fl as moisture increases from the south. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s. Near record high temperatures expected this weekend with highs reaching the low/mid 80s inland with dry conditions persisting. && .PREV DISCUSSION [640 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Dry weather will continue for the rest of the day and overnight as the weakening frontal boundary north of the region continues to recede. Patchy fog developments may develop overnight and into early tomorrow morning for inland southeast Georgia and areas west of I-75. High temperatures for today will be in the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 50s. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... Near record high temperatures are anticipated for the weekend as warm southwesterly prevailing flow, channeling between high pressure to the east and a gradually approaching frontal boundary situated to the west and north of Georgia, continues to move through the forecast area. Morning fog will disperse over inland areas on Saturday, with a potential for sea fog touching upon the shoreline throughout the day. Chances for dense fog will become much higher Saturday night and into Sunday morning with models showing fog developments throughout the area with densest formations occurring in areas west of I-75 and along the coastline. High temperatures for the weekend are forecasted to reach up into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temps in the 60s. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... The cold front from out of the north will press down into the forecast area at the beginning of next week with the frontal boundary stalling briefly in the vicinity of the Georgia-Florida border by midweek. Forecast models are currently in disagreement as to whether the frontal boundary will retreat from the area by the end of the week or push further southward, with high pressure conditions settling in for next weekend. The placement of the frontal boundary next week will result in active weather with showers and potential thunderstorms building throughout the region with the highest likelihood of convective developments occurring over southeast Georgia and adjacent counties of northeast Florida. Temperatures for areas ahead of the frontal boundary are expected to be above average during this period. .AVIATION...[Through 00Z Sunday] Lower fog chances tonight as models show little development across the area likely due to increased southerly winds right above the surface. Will continue with previous forecast of MVFR vsbys early Saturday morning as light fog may briefly form. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. .MARINE... The weak frontal boundary situated near the Georgia waters will continue to lift northward as a warm front today with high pressure moving eastward off Florida's Atlantic coast and extending its axis westward across the Florida peninsula this weekend. Southerly winds will prevail across our waters this weekend, and sea fog could develop by Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure will then dive southeastward from the Upper Midwest on Monday towards the eastern Great Lakes region by Monday night, which will push a cold front southward through the Georgia waters by late Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure will then reach the Mid- Atlantic coast by Tuesday afternoon, and the frontal boundary will stall over the northeast Florida waters. Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Tuesday, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible. Rip Currents: Low Risk Today Moderate Risk this Weekend .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure lies to our east, with a low pressure system to our west that will lift northeastward into the Tennessee Valley through Saturday night. Light transport winds will be in place across NE FL, with higher afternoon transport winds in SE GA, particularly near the Altamaha River. This will mean low-end dispersions in NE FL (around 25) and high dispersions (over 75) near the Altamaha River both today and tomorrow. RH values will be lowest where winds will also be lowest, preventing Red Flag conditions from developing. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return Monday when a weakening front slides south toward SE GA. .HYDROLOGY... Major River Flooding: Ongoing along Alapaha River near the Statenville gauge. Current trends indicate water level slowly receding to moderate flood status in the next 1-2 days. Moderate River Flooding: Ongoing along the lower Altamaha River near the Everett City gauge and expected to continue into Saturday. Minor River Flooding: Ongoing along most of the St. Marys, Satilla, Altamaha and Santa Fe Rivers. The lower Santa Fe will continue to rise through the end of the week as flow becomes blocked by rising waters near its confluence with the lower Suwannee River, with moderate flooding forecast to begin along the lower Santa Fe River near Three Rivers Estates by late Saturday as minor flooding begins along lower portions of the Suwannee River from the gauge near Luraville southward to around the gauge near Rock Bluff. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 54 84 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 SSI 57 72 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 JAX 57 84 63 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 SGJ 59 79 63 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 GNV 56 86 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 58 86 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&