616 
FXUS62 KFFC 250616
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
116 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021



.UPDATE...

06z Aviation update below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 930 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021/ 

UPDATE...
Cold front currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back
through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This front will move
eastward tonight and begin approaching NW portions of the CWA in a
few hours. The front will not have a lot of southward momentum, so
it should just sag south. No measurable precip associated with 
the boundary, just an increase in cloudiness. Would not rule out a
sprinkle or two, but the atmospheric column remains dry. 

Main changes to the forecast were for temps/dews. Dews were
running a bit drier than forecast. Temps were also running a bit
cooler than observed values and have repopulated the hourly
values. The MinT values may have increased a degree or two in some
areas. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

The main issue this afternoon has been low dew points and have tried 
to adjust forecast values down a bit toward current values. This 
drier trend has been should last into the early evening. Otherwise 
the upper flow remains mostly zonal for the short term. The surface 
high centered over the northeast Gulf gets suppressed to the south 
overnight as a surface front moves into the southern Appalachians 
and northwest GA by around 12z. Moisture still looks limited with 
this front so have continued with no mention of pops for tonight. 
This surface boundary may drift into central GA during the day 
tomorrow with a weak low moving along it. A short wave moving from 
the mid MS Valley late Thursday night should begin to affect our 
area mainly after 06z Friday. Some lift across the existing surface 
boundary could bring a chance for showers to much of north and 
central GA during the later part of Thursday night into early 
Friday. Warm temperatures should continue through the short term.  

41

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Moisture is reintroduced to the area late Thursday and into Friday 
out ahead of a cold front. Showers and the possibility of a rumble 
of thunder on friday afternoon will kick off a long term wet period 
that will last into the early part of next week. Precip will largely 
be confined to north of a line from Columbus to Macon, and the 
highest rain totals will be in the far northwest where rain 
quantities have the potential to exceed 3 inches from Friday to next 
week Tuesday. 

South of the I-20 corridor, rain is likely Friday afternoon but drops 
down to a chance for Saturday and Sunday as a stationary front 
stalls along the Tennessee Georgia border. Temperatures will run 
above average in the low 70s again on Sunday. Rain becomes more 
widespread by Monday afternoon and temps drop back to seasonal with 
highs in the low to mid 60s before the models show some indication 
of a cold front finally pushing the remaining precip out by midweek. 
There is quite a bit of discrepancies between models on the nature 
of this front and given it's at the end of the forecast period; kept 
pops to chance to account for the uncertainty. 

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions with alto deck pushing in from the west this
morning. Could get some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys near KCSG toward 
sunrise. Most of area should scatter out for daytime with 
lingering SCT cirrus for southern sites. Winds light SW/west 
switching NW with dry front around KATL later this morning. Focus 
shifts on late period with next disturbance increasing RA 
potential and lower cigs for Friday morning. Could have winds 
swing to NE side after 06z Friday for KATL.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on morning MVFR for KCSG today and on cig/precip trends for
Friday morning.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  46  52  43 /   5  20  70  60 
Atlanta         71  46  55  46 /   5  30  60  50 
Blairsville     64  41  47  41 /   5  30  80  70 
Cartersville    67  43  54  44 /   5  30  70  60 
Columbus        75  52  68  53 /  10  10  40  20 
Gainesville     69  44  49  42 /   5  30  70  70 
Macon           75  51  65  49 /   5  10  40  20 
Rome            67  42  55  48 /   5  40  80  60 
Peachtree City  71  47  59  48 /  10  20  60  40 
Vidalia         74  54  70  54 /  10   5  30  10 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Baker