616 FXUS62 KFFC 250616 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 116 AM EST Thu Feb 25 2021 .UPDATE... 06z Aviation update below. Baker && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 930 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021/ UPDATE... Cold front currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This front will move eastward tonight and begin approaching NW portions of the CWA in a few hours. The front will not have a lot of southward momentum, so it should just sag south. No measurable precip associated with the boundary, just an increase in cloudiness. Would not rule out a sprinkle or two, but the atmospheric column remains dry. Main changes to the forecast were for temps/dews. Dews were running a bit drier than forecast. Temps were also running a bit cooler than observed values and have repopulated the hourly values. The MinT values may have increased a degree or two in some areas. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... The main issue this afternoon has been low dew points and have tried to adjust forecast values down a bit toward current values. This drier trend has been should last into the early evening. Otherwise the upper flow remains mostly zonal for the short term. The surface high centered over the northeast Gulf gets suppressed to the south overnight as a surface front moves into the southern Appalachians and northwest GA by around 12z. Moisture still looks limited with this front so have continued with no mention of pops for tonight. This surface boundary may drift into central GA during the day tomorrow with a weak low moving along it. A short wave moving from the mid MS Valley late Thursday night should begin to affect our area mainly after 06z Friday. Some lift across the existing surface boundary could bring a chance for showers to much of north and central GA during the later part of Thursday night into early Friday. Warm temperatures should continue through the short term. 41 && .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Moisture is reintroduced to the area late Thursday and into Friday out ahead of a cold front. Showers and the possibility of a rumble of thunder on friday afternoon will kick off a long term wet period that will last into the early part of next week. Precip will largely be confined to north of a line from Columbus to Macon, and the highest rain totals will be in the far northwest where rain quantities have the potential to exceed 3 inches from Friday to next week Tuesday. South of the I-20 corridor, rain is likely Friday afternoon but drops down to a chance for Saturday and Sunday as a stationary front stalls along the Tennessee Georgia border. Temperatures will run above average in the low 70s again on Sunday. Rain becomes more widespread by Monday afternoon and temps drop back to seasonal with highs in the low to mid 60s before the models show some indication of a cold front finally pushing the remaining precip out by midweek. There is quite a bit of discrepancies between models on the nature of this front and given it's at the end of the forecast period; kept pops to chance to account for the uncertainty. Vaughn && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... Mainly VFR conditions with alto deck pushing in from the west this morning. Could get some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys near KCSG toward sunrise. Most of area should scatter out for daytime with lingering SCT cirrus for southern sites. Winds light SW/west switching NW with dry front around KATL later this morning. Focus shifts on late period with next disturbance increasing RA potential and lower cigs for Friday morning. Could have winds swing to NE side after 06z Friday for KATL. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on morning MVFR for KCSG today and on cig/precip trends for Friday morning. High on all else. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 46 52 43 / 5 20 70 60 Atlanta 71 46 55 46 / 5 30 60 50 Blairsville 64 41 47 41 / 5 30 80 70 Cartersville 67 43 54 44 / 5 30 70 60 Columbus 75 52 68 53 / 10 10 40 20 Gainesville 69 44 49 42 / 5 30 70 70 Macon 75 51 65 49 / 5 10 40 20 Rome 67 42 55 48 / 5 40 80 60 Peachtree City 71 47 59 48 / 10 20 60 40 Vidalia 74 54 70 54 / 10 5 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...Baker