493 
FXUS64 KAMA 061127
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
527 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Sunday at all three TAF
sites. Northwest to north winds 5 to 15 knots will increase after
14Z to 16Z today to 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 knots.
Low level wind shear is expected at the Amarillo and Dalhart TAF 
sites this morning until around 14Z to 16Z today. Winds will 
become north to northeast 5 to 15 knots after 21Z to 23Z today and
then southeast and south to southwest 10 to 20 knots after 06Z to
08Z Sunday. Low level wind shear will be possible once again at
all three TAF sites after 07Z to 08Z Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night

A cold front will move through the Panhandles this morning
resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and north with speeds 
increasing to around 15 to 25 mph and 20 to 30 mph with higher 
gusts by late morning. Some patchy blowing dust will be possible 
mainly south of Interstate 40 by late this morning through this 
afternoon. The frontal boundary will stretch just west and south 
of the Panhandles tonight but expected to lift back to the north 
Sunday northwest to southeast across the forecast area by Sunday 
afternoon. This will result in a temperature gradient with highest
temps, 60s to around 70, across the southwest half of the 
forecast area and the coolest temps, 50s to near 60, across the 
northeast half.

Shortwave upper trough will exit the Panhandles this morning with
a dry northwesterly flow aloft through Sunday. The upper flow will
transition to more zonal by Sunday night as another upper trough
tracks across the northern and central Rockies into the central
Plains states. Only some passing mid and high level clouds will
impact the Panhandles through Sunday night.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...

Today...

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across all of
the Panhandles today as a cold front moves through today. 20 foot
winds will shift to the northwest and north and increase to around
15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 mph by late this morning or
midday today. Minimum afternoon relative relative humidity values
will range from 12 and 18 percent across the western half of the
forecast area to 18 and 28 percent across the eastern half of the
Panhandles. Max RFTI values are forecast to be around 1 to 3
across the Panhandles today with ERC percentiles in the 70th to
89th percentile across the west and southwest Texas Panhandle 
with 50th to 69th percentile across the remainder of the forecast 
area. The RFTI's are mainly wind-driven but the fuels are becoming
increasingly more receptive with the lack of recent moisture.
Therefore, plan to issue a Fire Danger Statement for elevated fire
weather conditions today with emphasis on the far western and 
southwestern Texas Panhandle.

Schneider

LONG TERM...
First surge of arctic air is expected to spread across the 
Panhandles on Monday.  There will be quite a spread in temperatures 
depending on the timing of the front.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the cold air will try to retreat northeast 
across the southwest Texas Panhandle, at this point is hard to 
determine just how far northeast the cold air will retreat if at 
all.  

The cold air should then surge south again for Thursday and Friday 
and all of the Panhandles are expected to have highs in the 20's and 
30's.  Highs could even be colder than what we have broadcast at the 
moment given that the core of the coldest air moves more straight 
down the High Plains.

There is a small chance of snow Thursday night and again Friday 
night as a couple of short wave troughs rotate around the upper 
low over the Northern Plains and across the Panhandles.

Record low temperatures do not look like they are in jeopardy during 
this forecast. However, Borger could get close on early Saturday 
morning.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/15