493 FXUS64 KAMA 061127 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 527 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Sunday at all three TAF sites. Northwest to north winds 5 to 15 knots will increase after 14Z to 16Z today to 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 knots. Low level wind shear is expected at the Amarillo and Dalhart TAF sites this morning until around 14Z to 16Z today. Winds will become north to northeast 5 to 15 knots after 21Z to 23Z today and then southeast and south to southwest 10 to 20 knots after 06Z to 08Z Sunday. Low level wind shear will be possible once again at all three TAF sites after 07Z to 08Z Sunday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 252 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night A cold front will move through the Panhandles this morning resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and north with speeds increasing to around 15 to 25 mph and 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts by late morning. Some patchy blowing dust will be possible mainly south of Interstate 40 by late this morning through this afternoon. The frontal boundary will stretch just west and south of the Panhandles tonight but expected to lift back to the north Sunday northwest to southeast across the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. This will result in a temperature gradient with highest temps, 60s to around 70, across the southwest half of the forecast area and the coolest temps, 50s to near 60, across the northeast half. Shortwave upper trough will exit the Panhandles this morning with a dry northwesterly flow aloft through Sunday. The upper flow will transition to more zonal by Sunday night as another upper trough tracks across the northern and central Rockies into the central Plains states. Only some passing mid and high level clouds will impact the Panhandles through Sunday night. Schneider FIRE WEATHER... Today... Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across all of the Panhandles today as a cold front moves through today. 20 foot winds will shift to the northwest and north and increase to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 to 35 mph by late this morning or midday today. Minimum afternoon relative relative humidity values will range from 12 and 18 percent across the western half of the forecast area to 18 and 28 percent across the eastern half of the Panhandles. Max RFTI values are forecast to be around 1 to 3 across the Panhandles today with ERC percentiles in the 70th to 89th percentile across the west and southwest Texas Panhandle with 50th to 69th percentile across the remainder of the forecast area. The RFTI's are mainly wind-driven but the fuels are becoming increasingly more receptive with the lack of recent moisture. Therefore, plan to issue a Fire Danger Statement for elevated fire weather conditions today with emphasis on the far western and southwestern Texas Panhandle. Schneider LONG TERM... First surge of arctic air is expected to spread across the Panhandles on Monday. There will be quite a spread in temperatures depending on the timing of the front. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the cold air will try to retreat northeast across the southwest Texas Panhandle, at this point is hard to determine just how far northeast the cold air will retreat if at all. The cold air should then surge south again for Thursday and Friday and all of the Panhandles are expected to have highs in the 20's and 30's. Highs could even be colder than what we have broadcast at the moment given that the core of the coldest air moves more straight down the High Plains. There is a small chance of snow Thursday night and again Friday night as a couple of short wave troughs rotate around the upper low over the Northern Plains and across the Panhandles. Record low temperatures do not look like they are in jeopardy during this forecast. However, Borger could get close on early Saturday morning. && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 11/15