806 
FXUS64 KTSA 041111
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong winds continue this morning ahead of the next cold front
which will pass through all terminals by early afternoon. Post
frontal winds will also remain strong before diminishing after
sunset. A mixture of VFR to MVFR ceilings will both precede and
follow the frontal passage with the more extensive lower ceilings
being across SE OK and western AR. Skies clear and winds decrease
after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
A cold front that currently stretches from northeast 
Kansas to northwest Oklahoma will plow through eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. High temperatures
will occur this morning across the vast majority of the area 
with temperatures falling behind the front. Gusty northwest 
winds will follow the front with gusts upwards of 45 mph 
across portions of northeast Oklahoma. Therefore, a wind 
advisory will be issued for most of northeast Oklahoma through
mid-afternoon. Could also see a few rain showers this morning
and early afternoon in association with the frontal boundary.  

Temperatures are expected to rebound back to above normal 
levels on friday with a quick return of southerly low level
winds. The temperature forecast for the weekend becomes 
a little trickier. Some models allow additional cold air to 
seep into the area Saturday night into Sunday while others hold 
the arctic air at bay through the weekend. Have stayed close 
to the NBM temperatures through the weekend which is closer 
to the warmer ECMWF solution. However, confidence in this 
temperature forecast is very low. 

There is higher confidence that the arctic air will finally 
move into the area early next week and remain with us for 
the remainder of the week. Light wintry precipitation still 
looks possible Monday into Tuesday with the most significant
push of cold air. Precip type and amounts are still difficult
to pinpoint and this time. 
    

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  30  56  33 /  20   0   0   0 
FSM   55  30  56  31 /  30   0   0   0 
MLC   58  31  57  34 /  20   0   0   0 
BVO   51  28  54  29 /  20   0   0   0 
FYV   52  25  52  28 /  30   0   0   0 
BYV   53  28  50  30 /  30   0   0   0 
MKO   56  29  54  32 /  20   0   0   0 
MIO   54  28  51  29 /  30   0   0   0 
F10   56  30  56  33 /  20   0   0   0 
HHW   61  33  56  33 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054>062-
     064>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....07