806 FXUS64 KTSA 041111 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 511 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Strong winds continue this morning ahead of the next cold front which will pass through all terminals by early afternoon. Post frontal winds will also remain strong before diminishing after sunset. A mixture of VFR to MVFR ceilings will both precede and follow the frontal passage with the more extensive lower ceilings being across SE OK and western AR. Skies clear and winds decrease after sunset. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 AM CST Thu Feb 4 2021/ DISCUSSION... A cold front that currently stretches from northeast Kansas to northwest Oklahoma will plow through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning. High temperatures will occur this morning across the vast majority of the area with temperatures falling behind the front. Gusty northwest winds will follow the front with gusts upwards of 45 mph across portions of northeast Oklahoma. Therefore, a wind advisory will be issued for most of northeast Oklahoma through mid-afternoon. Could also see a few rain showers this morning and early afternoon in association with the frontal boundary. Temperatures are expected to rebound back to above normal levels on friday with a quick return of southerly low level winds. The temperature forecast for the weekend becomes a little trickier. Some models allow additional cold air to seep into the area Saturday night into Sunday while others hold the arctic air at bay through the weekend. Have stayed close to the NBM temperatures through the weekend which is closer to the warmer ECMWF solution. However, confidence in this temperature forecast is very low. There is higher confidence that the arctic air will finally move into the area early next week and remain with us for the remainder of the week. Light wintry precipitation still looks possible Monday into Tuesday with the most significant push of cold air. Precip type and amounts are still difficult to pinpoint and this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 55 30 56 33 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 55 30 56 31 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 58 31 57 34 / 20 0 0 0 BVO 51 28 54 29 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 52 25 52 28 / 30 0 0 0 BYV 53 28 50 30 / 30 0 0 0 MKO 56 29 54 32 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 54 28 51 29 / 30 0 0 0 F10 56 30 56 33 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 61 33 56 33 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054>062- 064>067. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....07