National Weather Service Raw Text Product

294 
FXUS63 KBIS 280318
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
918 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

The challenge over the next day or so will be cloud cover with
persistent stratus amid subsidence aloft. Based on low level RH
fields from the RAP/NAM cloud cover should persist through the 
day tomorrow in the central and north, with possible clearing 
further west. We adjusted sky grids based on this setup, though
with less certainty about where the edge of cloudy vs clearing
sets up on the western periphery. 925mb relative humidity fields 
and parameterized CAM output gives best chance for clearing skies 
from around Williams county south through the southwest. High 
level clouds streaming in from low pressure to our west may 
prevent completely sunny skies. 

Other changes for tonight include bumping up lows a few degrees,
especially southwest where stratus persists. 

UPDATE Issued at 611 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Water vapor imagery and the in-progress 00Z KBIS raob indicated an
increase in mid-level dry air and subsidence as a ridge builds
aloft, above a shallow saturated boundary layer. Light snow is 
still periodically being reported at isolated sites across western
and central North Dakota but this activity should decrease this 
evening given the aforementioned meteorological trends. Shallow 
stratus should be maintained for the most part tonight under 
southeast flow at the surface. With the boundary layer moisture
locked in place, temperatures should stay relatively warmer than 
the previous two nights. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Warm front band of snow is slowly moving eastward, with
diminishing snow rates as it progresses. Expect this band of snow
to impact some eastern areas through the evening hours, with some
clearing behind this band. This clearing could be brief, as low
level moisture looks to advect back into the region and create
more widespread low clouds. This is already showing up on
satellite across some western areas. As these clouds spread across
much of the area, there is a slight chance more flurries may fall
out of them. The moisture with this feature seems to be shallower
than recent days, so confidence is low on this occurring. Other
point of interest for tonight will once again be cold
temperatures. Current readings show only isolated pockets with
bitterly cold wind chills, so will let the current Wind Chill
Advisory expire. Lows in the single digits above and below zero
are then expected tonight. A light southeast breeze may also
be found, bringing widespread below zero wind chills. At the
moment, confidence is not high enough for another advisory but
will be something to monitor through the night.

Thursday then looks to be a cloudy yet mainly dry day. If some of
the lower level clouds can diminish, peaks of sunshine may come
through. An overall dry atmosphere will also make it hard for any
precipitation, although cannot rule out a few flurries.
Temperatures will overall continue on a warming trend, with many
areas returning to near normal highs. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Warming trend then continues for much of the long term, with some
chances for precipitation at times. Friday sees continued warming,
although moist southeast flow looks to continue the low cloud
potential. And as a surface low starts to develop, some flurry to
perhaps freezing drizzle potential is possible especially Friday
night. The weekend will then be a continue monitoring of the track
of this mentioned surface low along with warming temperatures. A
southerly track still seems to be the favored outcome. That being
said cannot rule out some snow chances Saturday into Sunday
morning, especially in the east. Depending on how things set up
there is also a potential for freezing rain/freezing drizzle on 
Saturday, although confidence is not high enough to include in the
forecast at this time. The rest of Sunday into Monday and perhaps
Tuesday sees a high pressure ridge bring warm and dry conditions,
with temps in the 40s for some areas. By mid next week there looks
to be another chance for widespread precipitation. The current
track of this low would put an inverted surface trough over ND,
perhaps bringing widespread snow. Still some time to work out the
timing and track details, but current ensemble members are hinting
at least moderate probabilities for measurable snow. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Widespread MVFR stratus continues tonight, dropping to IFR in
areas after 09Z. It's looking likely that stratus lingers through
the 00Z TAF period, though may improve to MVFR by around 18Z. 


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...AE