294 FXUS63 KBIS 280318 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 918 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 The challenge over the next day or so will be cloud cover with persistent stratus amid subsidence aloft. Based on low level RH fields from the RAP/NAM cloud cover should persist through the day tomorrow in the central and north, with possible clearing further west. We adjusted sky grids based on this setup, though with less certainty about where the edge of cloudy vs clearing sets up on the western periphery. 925mb relative humidity fields and parameterized CAM output gives best chance for clearing skies from around Williams county south through the southwest. High level clouds streaming in from low pressure to our west may prevent completely sunny skies. Other changes for tonight include bumping up lows a few degrees, especially southwest where stratus persists. UPDATE Issued at 611 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 Water vapor imagery and the in-progress 00Z KBIS raob indicated an increase in mid-level dry air and subsidence as a ridge builds aloft, above a shallow saturated boundary layer. Light snow is still periodically being reported at isolated sites across western and central North Dakota but this activity should decrease this evening given the aforementioned meteorological trends. Shallow stratus should be maintained for the most part tonight under southeast flow at the surface. With the boundary layer moisture locked in place, temperatures should stay relatively warmer than the previous two nights. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 Warm front band of snow is slowly moving eastward, with diminishing snow rates as it progresses. Expect this band of snow to impact some eastern areas through the evening hours, with some clearing behind this band. This clearing could be brief, as low level moisture looks to advect back into the region and create more widespread low clouds. This is already showing up on satellite across some western areas. As these clouds spread across much of the area, there is a slight chance more flurries may fall out of them. The moisture with this feature seems to be shallower than recent days, so confidence is low on this occurring. Other point of interest for tonight will once again be cold temperatures. Current readings show only isolated pockets with bitterly cold wind chills, so will let the current Wind Chill Advisory expire. Lows in the single digits above and below zero are then expected tonight. A light southeast breeze may also be found, bringing widespread below zero wind chills. At the moment, confidence is not high enough for another advisory but will be something to monitor through the night. Thursday then looks to be a cloudy yet mainly dry day. If some of the lower level clouds can diminish, peaks of sunshine may come through. An overall dry atmosphere will also make it hard for any precipitation, although cannot rule out a few flurries. Temperatures will overall continue on a warming trend, with many areas returning to near normal highs. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 Warming trend then continues for much of the long term, with some chances for precipitation at times. Friday sees continued warming, although moist southeast flow looks to continue the low cloud potential. And as a surface low starts to develop, some flurry to perhaps freezing drizzle potential is possible especially Friday night. The weekend will then be a continue monitoring of the track of this mentioned surface low along with warming temperatures. A southerly track still seems to be the favored outcome. That being said cannot rule out some snow chances Saturday into Sunday morning, especially in the east. Depending on how things set up there is also a potential for freezing rain/freezing drizzle on Saturday, although confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. The rest of Sunday into Monday and perhaps Tuesday sees a high pressure ridge bring warm and dry conditions, with temps in the 40s for some areas. By mid next week there looks to be another chance for widespread precipitation. The current track of this low would put an inverted surface trough over ND, perhaps bringing widespread snow. Still some time to work out the timing and track details, but current ensemble members are hinting at least moderate probabilities for measurable snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 611 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021 Widespread MVFR stratus continues tonight, dropping to IFR in areas after 09Z. It's looking likely that stratus lingers through the 00Z TAF period, though may improve to MVFR by around 18Z. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AE SHORT TERM...Anglin LONG TERM...Anglin AVIATION...AE