271 
FXUS62 KJAX 222351
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
651 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Sunday]

Low stratus restrictions are expected tonight through mid-morning
Saturday as a surface front slides southward across NE FL as high
pressure builds north of the region. Light rain will presses east
of the terminals over the next few hours, then mostly dry
conditions are expected tonight with only a low chance of light
drizzle at times as low stratus lowers. MVFR to IFR stratus over
SE GA will impact SSI this evening, with low stratus expected to
funnel farther south across N FL terminals through 02-06z with
LIFR restrictions most probable for VQQ/GNV/SGJ 06-10z near slow
moving frontal zones. Low clouds will gradually rise after 
sunrise Sat morning under increasing NNE winds as high pressure
strengthens north of the region with lingering MVFR restrictions
into the afternoon most likely at SGJ and potentially GNV where a
few light sprinkles will also be possible near the meandering
front. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [203 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Low pressure will move east along a west to east oriented frontal 
boundary this afternoon, as this boundary slowly sinks south into 
NE FL. As the main wave moves to the east late this afternoon,
precipitation chances will decrease this evening. The front will 
move just south of the forecast area Tonight, as high pressure 
builds to the northwest. With main energy with the system to the 
east Tonight, precipitation chances decrease from north to south. 
Patchy fog will be possible Tonight across area.

The high will build toward the northeast during the day Saturday, as
the frontal boundary remains stalled just to the south. An inverted 
trough is expected to develop in the coastal waters due to the 
onshore flow pattern. The front will begin to lift back into 
Suwannee valley late in the day as a warm front. Shower chances on
Saturday will be focused over southern counties, and a low chance 
will exist along NE FL coast. 

Temperatures will trend above normal Tonight. With the front mostly 
to the south, and northeast flow across the relatively cooler 
coastal waters, temperatures will trend a little below normal 
Saturday, especially near the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday]...

Saturday night there will be a slight chance of showers as the
front lifts north as a weak warm front. Saturday night low
temperatures will be in the mid 40s for SE GA and the lower 50s
for NE FL. On Sunday, high pressure will continue to slide
southeast off the Carolina coast, which will result in light
northeasterly to easterly flow and a chance for coastal showers.
It will be dry and cool inland on Sunday with high temperatures in
the low-to-mid 60s for SE GA and upper 60s and lower 70s for NE FL
with mid 70s possible in our southern NE FL counties. Sunday night
will be dry across the region with warmer overnight lows in the
mid-to-upper 50s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The high pressure will shift to our east over the Atlantic on Monday, 
and conditions will be dry and warm during the day. On Tuesday, a
low pressure system moving from the Southern Plains towards the 
Mid-Atlantic will bring a trailing cold front across our area. 
The front will weaken as it passes and bring a chance of showers 
and slight chance of thunderstorms all day Tuesday. The wet 
pattern will continue Wednesday as a wave of low pressure moves 
out of the Gulf and passes over our area, which will continue the 
chance for showers and slight chance for thunderstorms. The low 
will move offshore Thursday morning and move to the northeast into
the Atlantic. Our area will dry out Thursday afternoon and 
evening as high pressure builds to our north. Friday will be dry 
as well as high pressure shifts over the Carolinas. 

Temperatures will be above average early next week. On Monday and
Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the mid 70s for SE GA and
upper 70s for NE FL. Some locations in southern NE FL could see
temperatures reach the lower 80s. On Wednesday, we will cool
slightly in SE GA with high temperatures in the upper 60s to near
70, but NE FL will still see highs in the mid-to-upper 70s with
possible near 80 in our southern counties. On Thursday, we will
continue to cool with highs in the low-to-mid 60s for SE GA and
upper 60s to lower 70s for NE FL. Temperatures will continue to
cool further for Friday.


.MARINE...

Front will move south of area Tonight and stall, as high pressure 
builds to the northwest. The high will build more toward the 
northeast Saturday, with an inverted trough developing over coastal 
waters. The coastal trough will continue through Saturday night into
Sunday. The high will build to the east Sunday night, then southeast
Monday. A cold front will move southeast into region Tuesday, and 
then lift back to the north Wednesday. A cold front will move 
southeast across area Wednesday night, followed by high pressure to 
the northwest Thursday. The high will build toward the north 
Thursday night through Friday.

Rip Currents:  SE GA Moderate over the weekend.
               NE FL Moderate over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  48  61  43  60  52 /  20   0  10  10   0 
SSI  51  56  49  60  55 /  50   0  20  20   0 
JAX  52  61  51  65  56 /  60  10  30  20   0 
SGJ  54  60  55  68  58 /  40  10  30  20   0 
GNV  56  65  52  71  55 /  30  10  30  10   0 
OCF  58  65  54  75  57 /  30  30  20  10   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&