271 FXUS62 KJAX 222351 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 651 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Sunday] Low stratus restrictions are expected tonight through mid-morning Saturday as a surface front slides southward across NE FL as high pressure builds north of the region. Light rain will presses east of the terminals over the next few hours, then mostly dry conditions are expected tonight with only a low chance of light drizzle at times as low stratus lowers. MVFR to IFR stratus over SE GA will impact SSI this evening, with low stratus expected to funnel farther south across N FL terminals through 02-06z with LIFR restrictions most probable for VQQ/GNV/SGJ 06-10z near slow moving frontal zones. Low clouds will gradually rise after sunrise Sat morning under increasing NNE winds as high pressure strengthens north of the region with lingering MVFR restrictions into the afternoon most likely at SGJ and potentially GNV where a few light sprinkles will also be possible near the meandering front. && .PREV DISCUSSION [203 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]... Low pressure will move east along a west to east oriented frontal boundary this afternoon, as this boundary slowly sinks south into NE FL. As the main wave moves to the east late this afternoon, precipitation chances will decrease this evening. The front will move just south of the forecast area Tonight, as high pressure builds to the northwest. With main energy with the system to the east Tonight, precipitation chances decrease from north to south. Patchy fog will be possible Tonight across area. The high will build toward the northeast during the day Saturday, as the frontal boundary remains stalled just to the south. An inverted trough is expected to develop in the coastal waters due to the onshore flow pattern. The front will begin to lift back into Suwannee valley late in the day as a warm front. Shower chances on Saturday will be focused over southern counties, and a low chance will exist along NE FL coast. Temperatures will trend above normal Tonight. With the front mostly to the south, and northeast flow across the relatively cooler coastal waters, temperatures will trend a little below normal Saturday, especially near the coast. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday]... Saturday night there will be a slight chance of showers as the front lifts north as a weak warm front. Saturday night low temperatures will be in the mid 40s for SE GA and the lower 50s for NE FL. On Sunday, high pressure will continue to slide southeast off the Carolina coast, which will result in light northeasterly to easterly flow and a chance for coastal showers. It will be dry and cool inland on Sunday with high temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s for SE GA and upper 60s and lower 70s for NE FL with mid 70s possible in our southern NE FL counties. Sunday night will be dry across the region with warmer overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]... The high pressure will shift to our east over the Atlantic on Monday, and conditions will be dry and warm during the day. On Tuesday, a low pressure system moving from the Southern Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic will bring a trailing cold front across our area. The front will weaken as it passes and bring a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms all day Tuesday. The wet pattern will continue Wednesday as a wave of low pressure moves out of the Gulf and passes over our area, which will continue the chance for showers and slight chance for thunderstorms. The low will move offshore Thursday morning and move to the northeast into the Atlantic. Our area will dry out Thursday afternoon and evening as high pressure builds to our north. Friday will be dry as well as high pressure shifts over the Carolinas. Temperatures will be above average early next week. On Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the mid 70s for SE GA and upper 70s for NE FL. Some locations in southern NE FL could see temperatures reach the lower 80s. On Wednesday, we will cool slightly in SE GA with high temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70, but NE FL will still see highs in the mid-to-upper 70s with possible near 80 in our southern counties. On Thursday, we will continue to cool with highs in the low-to-mid 60s for SE GA and upper 60s to lower 70s for NE FL. Temperatures will continue to cool further for Friday. .MARINE... Front will move south of area Tonight and stall, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build more toward the northeast Saturday, with an inverted trough developing over coastal waters. The coastal trough will continue through Saturday night into Sunday. The high will build to the east Sunday night, then southeast Monday. A cold front will move southeast into region Tuesday, and then lift back to the north Wednesday. A cold front will move southeast across area Wednesday night, followed by high pressure to the northwest Thursday. The high will build toward the north Thursday night through Friday. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate over the weekend. NE FL Moderate over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 48 61 43 60 52 / 20 0 10 10 0 SSI 51 56 49 60 55 / 50 0 20 20 0 JAX 52 61 51 65 56 / 60 10 30 20 0 SGJ 54 60 55 68 58 / 40 10 30 20 0 GNV 56 65 52 71 55 / 30 10 30 10 0 OCF 58 65 54 75 57 / 30 30 20 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&