177 
FXUS64 KAMA 191749
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1149 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Issuance...Light snow is possible at DHT through the next
few hours and there is a very small chance for GUY to see some
flurries in the next hour or two. Visibility at DHT is around 2-3
SM, but will begin to improve this afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the period at all three sites.
High SCT/BKN clouds will persist through tomorrow. Winds are out
of the north through tomorrow morning before turning back to the
southwest for the day tomorrow. Wind speeds are around 5 to 15
knots today and will pick up again tomorrow morning with winds
around 10 to 20 knots and gusts up 30 knots are possible through
the end of the TAF period.

Rutt

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...

Main story in the immediate term is the ongoing snow in the far 
western Panhandles Tuesday morning. Clayton has been reporting snow 
for a few hours now, with the lowest visibility reported so far 
being 1 and 1/2 miles for around 10 minutes. This lends confidence 
to the expectation that any snowfall this morning will be light. 
Some weak radar reflectivity enhancement is seen southwest of a CAO-
DHT line lifting northeastward, so DHT seems likely to get in on the 
light snow here shortly. Latest short term guidance has light snow 
potential continuing to around midday today with minimal impacts 
expected. Otherwise, expect a chilly day today with widespread mid 
level clouds and northeasterly winds continuing through at least the 
latter part of the afternoon.

Wednesday, expect a disturbance to eject over the Canadian Prairies 
with the base of this upper trough moving over the central Plains, 
leading to a surface cyclone developing over Lake Winnipeg with 
attendant surface troughing extending southward to SE SO. This will 
lead to west-southwesterly winds across the Panhandles and some 
largely wind driven fire danger, as described below. Additionally, 
expect the warmest day in some time, with many locations reaching 
the 60s in the afternoon.

Ferguson

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday as a 
surface trough develops to our north, leading to west-southwesterly 
winds across the Panhandles. While these downslope winds usually 
lead to notable drying, RH values do not appear likely to fall below 
25 percent at this time. Thus, the fire risk will be wind driven, 
with progged 40 knot winds at 700/850mb over the northern Panhandles 
during the early afternoon leading to 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph 
there. Fuels are drying, with the northeastern half of the 
Panhandles expected to see ERC values in the 50th-69th percentile. 
Thus, the most likely area to see elevated conditions will reside in 
the northeastern Panhandles, where fuels are driest and winds will 
be relatively higher.

Ferguson

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

A closed low off the coast of northern Baja will finally make its
way across the desert southwest Thursday. However, raw models are
in good agreement that the low will weaken considerably by the 
time it reaches the Panhandle area Thursday night. That being 
said, the combination of some embedded vorticity and perhaps just 
enough moisture could result in brief periods of light 
precipitation across mainly the southeastern Texas Panhandle 
Thursday night. If precipitation does occur, amounts would be very
light at best. The persistent southwest flow aloft and the lack 
of any appreciable lower level cold air advection will keep any 
precipitation in a liquid state, and this is supported by the 
progged thermodynamic profiles.

Some low clouds may persist through the day Friday as a weak back
door front moves into the area promoting some upslope flow. 
Precipitation is not likely as the best dynamic lift and 
mid/upper level moisture depart from our area by sunrise. The 
Canadian model is one outlier that does suggest precipitation may 
linger into Friday morning, but other models and ensemble members 
generally agree with keeping Friday dry. The model blend kept PoPs
generally below 10 percent Friday, and these were retained. 
Temperatures will be a bit chilly considering the weak cold air 
advection and persistent cloud cover. 

The airmass over the Panhandles will begin to modify going into
Saturday as some amplification takes place in the upper level
pattern. The latest raw models and ensemble means are in
reasonable agreement that a western NOAM trough will setup while 
a northern stream low forms over central Canada. This could lead 
to a more active period over the weekend and into next week 
depending on how this pattern evolves. For now, left the blended 
PoPs and winds alone as large model differences become evident, 
but may need to target some adjustments in coming forecast cycles.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

23/89