177 FXUS64 KAMA 191749 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Issuance...Light snow is possible at DHT through the next few hours and there is a very small chance for GUY to see some flurries in the next hour or two. Visibility at DHT is around 2-3 SM, but will begin to improve this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period at all three sites. High SCT/BKN clouds will persist through tomorrow. Winds are out of the north through tomorrow morning before turning back to the southwest for the day tomorrow. Wind speeds are around 5 to 15 knots today and will pick up again tomorrow morning with winds around 10 to 20 knots and gusts up 30 knots are possible through the end of the TAF period. Rutt && PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 AM CST Tue Jan 19 2021/ SHORT TERM... Main story in the immediate term is the ongoing snow in the far western Panhandles Tuesday morning. Clayton has been reporting snow for a few hours now, with the lowest visibility reported so far being 1 and 1/2 miles for around 10 minutes. This lends confidence to the expectation that any snowfall this morning will be light. Some weak radar reflectivity enhancement is seen southwest of a CAO- DHT line lifting northeastward, so DHT seems likely to get in on the light snow here shortly. Latest short term guidance has light snow potential continuing to around midday today with minimal impacts expected. Otherwise, expect a chilly day today with widespread mid level clouds and northeasterly winds continuing through at least the latter part of the afternoon. Wednesday, expect a disturbance to eject over the Canadian Prairies with the base of this upper trough moving over the central Plains, leading to a surface cyclone developing over Lake Winnipeg with attendant surface troughing extending southward to SE SO. This will lead to west-southwesterly winds across the Panhandles and some largely wind driven fire danger, as described below. Additionally, expect the warmest day in some time, with many locations reaching the 60s in the afternoon. Ferguson FIRE WEATHER Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Wednesday as a surface trough develops to our north, leading to west-southwesterly winds across the Panhandles. While these downslope winds usually lead to notable drying, RH values do not appear likely to fall below 25 percent at this time. Thus, the fire risk will be wind driven, with progged 40 knot winds at 700/850mb over the northern Panhandles during the early afternoon leading to 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph there. Fuels are drying, with the northeastern half of the Panhandles expected to see ERC values in the 50th-69th percentile. Thus, the most likely area to see elevated conditions will reside in the northeastern Panhandles, where fuels are driest and winds will be relatively higher. Ferguson LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... A closed low off the coast of northern Baja will finally make its way across the desert southwest Thursday. However, raw models are in good agreement that the low will weaken considerably by the time it reaches the Panhandle area Thursday night. That being said, the combination of some embedded vorticity and perhaps just enough moisture could result in brief periods of light precipitation across mainly the southeastern Texas Panhandle Thursday night. If precipitation does occur, amounts would be very light at best. The persistent southwest flow aloft and the lack of any appreciable lower level cold air advection will keep any precipitation in a liquid state, and this is supported by the progged thermodynamic profiles. Some low clouds may persist through the day Friday as a weak back door front moves into the area promoting some upslope flow. Precipitation is not likely as the best dynamic lift and mid/upper level moisture depart from our area by sunrise. The Canadian model is one outlier that does suggest precipitation may linger into Friday morning, but other models and ensemble members generally agree with keeping Friday dry. The model blend kept PoPs generally below 10 percent Friday, and these were retained. Temperatures will be a bit chilly considering the weak cold air advection and persistent cloud cover. The airmass over the Panhandles will begin to modify going into Saturday as some amplification takes place in the upper level pattern. The latest raw models and ensemble means are in reasonable agreement that a western NOAM trough will setup while a northern stream low forms over central Canada. This could lead to a more active period over the weekend and into next week depending on how this pattern evolves. For now, left the blended PoPs and winds alone as large model differences become evident, but may need to target some adjustments in coming forecast cycles. Ward && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 23/89